DNB Markets, predicts oil prices up – Hegnar Online

oil prices lifted significantly throughout the past year, and DNB Markets, with oljeanalytiker Torbjørn Kjus in the tip, writes in his fresh konjunkturrapport that they are now expecting a further rise in the year.

According to the Reuters monthly survey is the consensus for the oil price in 2017 now at 57 dollars a barrel. DNB Markets, however, is more optimistic, predicting that the oil price in the year will be at 65 dollars a barrel.

Produksjonskutt

Kjus point out that Opec countries last year agreed to cut oil production, and that the agreement was historic as 11 countries outside Opec also decided to join in on the produksjonskuttene, which started 1. January.

“We don’t think Opec will supply more than 60 percent of the promised cuts. However, it is enough to ensure that 2017 will be the first year since 2013 with a global nedtrekk in oljelagrene”, type oljeanalytikeren in the report.

“In a longer perspective, global demand for oil stop increasing without that it necessarily means the permanent low oil prices”, he points out.

Nedsiderisiko

Kjus also points out that it meglerhusets prisprognose is a nedsiderisiko which primarily comes from four factors.

A faster increase of production from Libya and Nigeria than they currently assume can give lower price of oil. It can also be a possible trade war between the united STATES and China, even stronger growth in the u.s. skiferoljeproduksjon, or a less produksjonsdall in mature oil fields than it is the investment firm currently assumes.

“We believe that we have entered a new oljeverden where both the supply and demand for oil more priselastisk than in the past. For the supply side, it has naturally to do with skiferoljen who got his volumgjennombrudd in 2013 to 2014,” writes oljeanalytikeren in the report.

He also points out that global oil demand will be more priselastisk than we have seen previously, because petroleumssubsidier have been removed or reduced in many of the largest oljekonsumerende countries.

“When the price of oil rose above 100 dollars a barrel, and was stable at about 110 per barrel in nearly four years, was oil demand protected by subsidies or priskontrollmekanismer in countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait. So, it is no longer,” writes Kjus.