Svein Gjedrem: – its oil wealth is Norway’s most important industry – Aftenposten

its oil wealth is Norway’s most important industry. The we should not build down!

Former governor Svein Gjedrem is on the scene at the Skagenfondenes nyttårskonferanse Wednesday. He expands the definition of what is a “nutrition”.

After that oil prices were more than halved in the second half of 2014, there have been meetings, seminars, and lectures around the country about what Norway will live off after the oil.

Gjedrems message is that in the future, we should live of the dividends, interest and verdiendinger from its oil wealth, in addition to many other income.

Wednesday was the value of the fund around 7600 billion.

By taxes, taxes, direct participation on the shelf and the dividend from Statoil pulls the state into the most of the value of extracted oil and gas.

All the oil revenues go in the point into its oil wealth. They are invested in stocks, fixed income and real estate around the world.

the Return of the fund fluctuate from year to year. In 2015 was 2.7 per cent, measured in terms of foreign money. In the last five years it has been 7.2 per cent in annual gjennomnitt.

Some of the oljepengenene being used in the state budget each year, so that the budget goes in the balance sheet.

the Fund has grown from 1399 billion at the end of 2005 to around 7600 billion now.

Measures of expected income

its oil wealth may in the near future over the oil sector as the largest source of income.

– as Measured by the expected income is its oil wealth Norway’s most important industry. The expected income from the oil industry have gone down significantly. The size of its oil wealth has increased, so that the expected revenue from there is increased, ” he says.

its oil wealth ahead of other industries

In the years 1998-2015 had the fund to an average annual real return of 3.7 per cent. This is the return after it is set by the money to compensate for prisvekstens effect on the fund’s real value.

A such returns going forward, calculated at the current fund, means an income of barely 300 billion annually. But the future return of the fund is uncertain and it will swing a lot.

For comparison, the value added in key industries in 2015:

• Industry: 223 billion
• Wholesale and retail trade and car repair shops: 214 billion
• Construction: 177 billion

its oil wealth provides a consistently larger income than these industries.

the Extraction of oil and gas lay in the 2015 is still far ahead of all other industries in value creation.

But Gjedrem talking about the expected income of the fund and the expected revenues from the recovery in the future. Both these and a number of other sizes that determines what is Norway’s most important industry is uncertain.

Provides many jobs

– But its oil wealth provides the no jobs, except for around 500 employees in Norges Bank?

– It provides a significant number of jobs because the return is financing 15 per cent of public expenditure. It is a powerful annenhåndsvirkning in the form of jobs in the public sector, ” he says.

Alternatively, you can oil revenues be used to provide tax cuts.

Then stimulates the jobbdannelsen in the private sector. So it has great significance for the employment in our country.

Income from both fund and industry

Gjedrem they didn’t seem strange to mention the revenue from the fund as a “business”.

– It is not a particularly labor-intensive industry, and it is based the on our oljeformue. So you can say it is a avløper from the oil industry. But now it stands on its own merits. There is a fortune there and it provides a return. It is an income and it is income we will use, ” he says.

The former sentralbanksjefens message is its oil wealth is an equally good industry for example the industry. The often get the most attention in the economic debate.

– the Industry creates income and the income is used. So I think it is okay to call its oil wealth an industry, ” he says.

– Is this a safe industry?

– Here is the return swing significantly. The annual earnings could be greatly negative or greatly positive.

Not everything is in the accounts

He recalls that a substantial part of the income is not going tilt call in the nation’s economic accounts – national accounts. Changes in the value of the country’s interests are not recorded as positive or negative income.

But it is just as good income for it. In the long term, I think its oil wealth will be a good and secure source of income. I think there will be growth in the world economy and the positive return on the type of investment that is in the fund, he says.

the Increased value of Oljefondets investments can easily be realised by selling them on stock exchanges the world over.

Even if the nations could be forced to adjust their expectations to the return, think Gjedrem that the fund will provide a “significant average annual inntektsstrøm” the next generation.

do Not eat of the fund

the Condition is that “man” does not begin to eat of the fund.

– It is always a good purpose that is on the list and there is considerable interest to allocate investments in ways that are not necessarily the best with respect to yield, ” he says.

As an example of the proposed earmarked investments he mentions a proposal “to set aside quite a lot of funds to relatively new, uncertain investments that have a green sign”.

– It may well be that a should to make investments that are perceived about the green. But the way to approach it, by setting off very large amounts is not something one would do from a inntektssynspunkt, ” he says.

In the years its oil wealth become larger and larger. In year shrink it by 40 billion. Its oil wealth from 0 to 7000 billion. in two decades Who is the most dependent on oljepenger here in the country?