– The ripple effects of the fall in oil investment is higher than we had expected, warns NHO Director Dag Aarnes, as Tuesday presents the latest figures.
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A decline in investment in Norwegian shelf pull the country’s total investment down to minus 2.5 percent next year, according to the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (NHO).
– The ripple effects of the fall in oil investment is greater than previously envisaged, turn Dag Aarnes, director of Economics and taxation of NHO stated to DN.
Tuesday he puts forward NHO’s economy barometer for the third quarter. Survey is based on interviews with 2,600 member companies.
– For the first time, reports the petroleum sector of weaker market situation and outlook than for traditional export companies, says Aarnes.
– There is a strong negative impulse the rest of the Norwegian economy. Boatyard and industry are affected, but the repercussions will spread to the whole breadth of Norwegian industry, he stressed.
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Mutes the duality
Are the oil companies estimate, use 42 billion less on the Norwegian shelf next year, recently showed a count SSB has completed.
SSB census contains albeit no estimates for projects which have not submitted a plan for development and operation. That means including Johan Sverdrup field is not included in the 2015 figures.
– Now it looks very dim, but it may be that there are new projects, says Aarnes.
Less bipartite
NHO envisions that the fall in oil investment ends at 10 percent in 2015, the same time, mainland Norway expect an increase in investment of 1.1 percent to next year, it is estimated.
“The dichotomy that we have previously seen in the Norwegian business sector between petroleum related industries on the one hand and other mainland industry on the other hand seems to be less pronounced,” said the the new report.
The weakening of the oil industry leads simultaneously to the mood among companies in eastern improves compared to the West Coast, according to NHO.
Getting loans
A majority of NHO member companies say they still plan to reduce rather than increase investment in the current period.
Member Firms Employment growth of 1.2 percent in 2014, figures show. Industry employment projections for 2015 are about one and a half percent.
This happens despite the fact that it has become somewhat easier for businesses to get loans, says NHO Director Aarnes.
– Credit flow to the private sector runs a little better, without having affected investment on the mainland economy much, he says.
– Households are cautious
While NHO envisions a somewhat weaker in 2015 than previously, has adjusted the employing organization’s forecasts for the current year something.
The final result:
- A slightly higher growth in aggregate demand from abroad
- Improving household purchasing power
- Public investments
The growth in both consumption and housing investment next year is expected to be “relatively” low. High debt and high house prices make it necessary for Norwegian households to save a lot, believe NHO.
– Households are quite cautious, and this affects the whole picture, says Aarnes.
The survey was conducted by TNS Gallup on behalf of NHO among leaders in NHO member companies in the period from 5 to 19 August 2014 were cast in 2637 responses.
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