Dagligvareekspert Odd Gisholts hypotheses for the future of the grocery market up to 2026:
1.Retail market will increase from the current 170 billion to 210 billion. Food online and selling through the chains with a wide product range, will be included in these figures.
2.There will still be three big Norwegian chains, while the foreign players will possibly try without success.
3.The number of profile houses will be reduced from day 10 large with Rema 1000, Kiwi, and Extra in the tip to 7. The competition, however, will still be very hard and it comes a new harddiscout-concept on the path.
4.The number of shops will go down from the current 3800 to 3400, while sales within the kiosk, gas etc. to grow. The number of “Brustadbuer” will increase.
5.The proportion of budget will stabilize at around 70 %.
6.Nearly 100% of any distribution will go via the wholesaler.
7.The share of own brands will overall stabilize at around 30 %, is different from category to category. This happens at the same time as the proportion of local food increasing greatly, especially the organic products.
8.Large suppliers such as Orkla, Nortura and Tine will notice the strong competition from international supplier like Unilever, Nestle, Mondelez, Arla etc.
9.The Norwegian landbrukssamvirke will get far less protection. Ostetollen will be gone.
10.Australians will spend less than 10% of its disposable income on groceries.
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