In 2016 more than doubled oil prices, from only 27 dollars at the start of the year, to 57 dollars at the end of the year.
A solid styrkelse, even o.m.d. a still far up to the prices of 114 dollars, so one before the price put off after the summer 2014.
on Tuesday this week dropped the price of oil by three dollars, after having reached its highest level in 18 months. Oil prices reached just over 58 dollars at its peak before it fell back.
Since it has climbed again, and stabilized just under 57 dollars a barrel.
explanation on the price fall earlier in the week pulls the analysts forward doubt promising produksjonskutt in the OPEC and a stronger dollar.
– Dollarstyrkelsen weight is definitely the price of oil, said Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associated in Houston, according to Reuters.
– Dollarstyrkelsen is not enough to explain the oljeprisfallet Tuesday, says oljeanalytiker Thina Saltvedt of Nordea Markets to the E24.
– There is also news that Libya has turned up his production more and that they will reach even higher level in 2017, which have got the investors to turn around. This prevents the slumpen of the expected cuts that OPEC will carry out and the cuts Oman and Kuwait have already said they have done
This happens if the crown strengthened
In addition to the increased production in Libya, also came news this week that the country is now reopens the last of the nine major oljeterminalene which were closed during the war. According to Bloomberg shall Zawiya terminal is now prepared to export oil again after the pipeline that sends the oil to the terminal was reopened.
– Too much confidence has been given to OPEC and the other countries that have promised cuts. They have increased production in the last few months, so the cuts will be as drastic nyttårsdiett, and we know all how they end, ” said John Kilduff at Capital LLC, to Bloomberg.
Oljeanalytiker Thina Saltvedt of Nordea Markets Nordea Markets.
the News agency also points out that the number of active drilling rigs in the previous week, reaching its highest level since January of last year.
– Need physical answers
As the E24 summed up in the new year, oil prices have plummeted steadily from the summer of 2014, but picked up at the end of the year that was just put behind us.
the Reason for the jump in oil prices the last few months is related to Opecs agreement produksjonskutt, which was laid out in December.
Last week continued recovery after that came signs that Opec members are planning to follow up the agreement.
– the Recovery so far is based on expectations. But what we see now is the physical response to the promises that have come, ” says Saltvedt.
Wait no particular increase
Oljeanalytikeren points out that the oil price now is very fragile.
– I can’t wait to some particular increase before we see some more results. There comes a lot of oil from countries outside the Opec agreement, there will be a motarbeidende factor. We have enough to get used to more movement as it happened on Tuesday. Among other things, contributes to increased skiferoljeproduksjon in the united STATES, as a result of increased oil prices, to pull the price down, ” says Saltvedt.
– Oljeprisoppgangen lose enough a little his guts now, because skiferoljen put ceilings on how high the price can go. It is hard to get prices much above $ 60 because it will get even more shale oil at the end of next year. We are waiting an snittpris of 57 dollars next year, she continues.
In addition to the several skiferoljeprodusenter now start up production again due to higher oil prices, have also Donald Trump said that he will strengthen Us oljenæring.
– Vulnerable to decline
Think oljelagrene will shrink for the first time since 2013
Seb-chief analyst Bjarne Schieldrop describes the reasons for the price drop as something more mysterious than Saltvedt, who is in a note Wednesday morning.
– the price of oil went straight down without any apparent reasons. However, what is clear is that we have entered a new year with a record high level that the net long positions in WTI (u.s. light oil, journ.anm.), that makes the price very vulnerable to decline, and what we saw yesterday was obviously such a decline, writes Schieldrop.
EXPORTS: libya’s oil output begins to take up. Here we see a maltese-registered tanker outside Ras Lanuf in Lybia.
E24 wrote on Monday that oljespekulanter believe that oljerallyet will continue in 2017. Not at 2.5 years has as many speculators bet on increasing oil prices.
Furthermore, draws him forward that, although OPEC has begun with the produksjonskutt, so does not necessarily mean the immediate price increase. In addition to the very high production in the OPEC in the fourth quarter of 2016, pull Schieldrop out that increased production in Libya can hold the prices back.
the Dollar is at its highest at 14 years of age
the Us dollar has reached its highest in 14 years, measured against a basket of other leading currencies. Because oil is usually purchased in dollars, a strong dollar the oil more expensive.
It is, first and foremost, stronger production figures (ISM) that explains the styrkelsen, according to analysts.
In December, increased the ISM index to 54,7, higher than expected. 50 indicates a higher activity, while an index below 50 indicates lower activity.
the Case continues below the advertisement.
Index is a rundspørring among innkjøpssjefene in more than 375 service companies in multiple sectors throughout the united STATES. This section constitutes about 80 percent of the u.s. economy.
– Dollarrallyet operated by huge investorforventninger that the relatively strong economy in the united STATES will accelerate further under Donald Trump, who is expected to contribute to growth through financial incentives and de-regulation, ” says Boris Schlossberg at BK Asset Management, to Marketwatch.
Through the last quarter the dollar has risen 4.6 per cent, as a result of expectations of increased inflation and interest rates.
More sensitive to the dollar
despite The fact that she thinks only a small part of the oljeprisnedgangen due dollarstyrkelsen, see oil prices seem to be more sensitive to the dollar than previously, according to Saltvedt.
– as more and more countries reduce subsidies, as will a change in the dollar get faster adoption to the consumer, ” says Saltvedt.
With the subsidy, she thinks first and foremost on drivstoffsubsidier that makes utsalgsprisene on gasoline and diesel are much lower than market value in many countries.
This is the expensive arrangements that many countries now see opportunities to get removed when market prices are low.
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