one year ago predicted the Property of the Norway house prices in Norway would rise by 3-5 per cent.
Today’s Business asked 25 experts about the same. The boldest predicted an inflation rate of 5 percent, while several thought the top was reached and that prices would be unchanged.
today came the numbers: Prices have risen by 12.8 per cent nationwide. In Oslo, the increase is around 23,3 per cent.
Fear bubble
Swedbank’s chief economist Harald Magnus Andreassen fear the housing bubble in Oslo.
Photo: NRK
Swedbank’s chief economist Harald Magnus Andreassen is among the experts who missed greatly on its prediction for house prices in 2016.
– I underestimated enough the effect of the low interest rates, and so has the economy gone a little better. In particular, the labour market outside oljeregionen been in recovery, he explains to NRK.
He says that in particular the growth in Oslo has been greater than what the market otherwise would indicate, and indicates that it neither has been a considerable increase in income or decrease in unemployment.
I suspect that we are in a bobletilstand where expectations of further price increase has led to that many want to get in on the market. When prices have risen, so, of course, there is a nedsiderisiko, ” he says.
Feared increased unemployment
Christian Vammervold Dreyer la today before the Property of the Norwegian boligprisstatistikk for 2016.
Photo: Kallestad, Gorm / NTB scanpix
real Estate Norway chief executive Christian Vammervold Dreyer says the difficult situation in the autumn of 2015 made it difficult to predict last year’s luxury island, property prices.
– One is expecting higher unemployment over the whole country, not just in Western norway and in the Agder counties. We also had a difficult flyktningsituasjon, and did not know what effect it would have, ” he says.
” Now we see, with the numbers in hand, that Norwegian households hardly have had better advice than they had in 2016. They have used the record-low interest rates and good wage level to act housing, ” explains Dreyer.
still Waiting growth
Although the prices grew over all expectations in the last year, think the experts still that the market will calm itself.
” We expect continued growth in house prices, but it can slow down towards the summer. A lot is taken out through 2016, and the growth will probably be much more subdued in 2017, says Nordea Markets’ chief economist Kjetil Olsen to NRK.
He believes house prices will rise 5 percent nationally and 10 percent in Oslo in the coming year.
– We start the year with few homes for sale, and it’s going to be pressure in the market in the first few months. So this will be moderated throughout the year, think Dreyer, that predicts the 10-12 per cent growth in the market in 2017.
Huseiernes Association expects a price increase of 7-9 percent in the coming year. Also Norway’s real estate agents think prices will rise, and refers to the low interest rate and that there are too few homes for sale.
See minidokumentaren “Agents” of the powerful boligprisveksten in Oslo.
See minidokumentaren “Agents” of the powerful boligprisveksten in Oslo.
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