- Some employees must accept to lose salary – Aftenposten

- Some employees must accept to lose salary – Aftenposten

Chief Economist Øystein Dørum DNB Markets answering questions in Aftenposten fixed Sunday column on the main fields of economics right now.

– Renta was set down again, we shall consider it as an early Christmas present?

– No, we must have clear to us that the interest rate cut due to the prospect of Norwegian economy has been worse than before . Growth will be lower than anticipated. It also means that we will have more unemployed than before, although 96 percent of us will still have a job and go to and a safe economy.

– There is no reason to just put new impetus to borrow carousel?

– No, absolutely not. Now the question is, how quickly banks respond by putting down people’s residential rate. Whatever you do have to take into account that the low level now not going to be the normal situation. People must now as before calculating how high borrowing costs they can withstand a higher rate than today, before they take out loans such situation is today.

– Can we contrary experience that economic stagnation facing demands for general pay freeze?

– I have a hard time believing. We expect low wage growth next year, 1 percent adjusted for inflation, so whatever is enough time past when an oil industry is booming provided the basis for good growth, both nationally and in people’s private economy.

– But can groups of workers had to accept lønnsedgang?

– Yes, for example, engineers who now becomes redundant in the oil industry and to find a new job “on the mainland.” For this employee group can probably wait to have to go down in salary in relation to the oil industry have been willing to pay them.

– The downturn in the Norwegian economy is claimed to be “only temporary.” How secure can we be on it?

– Not at all. Uncertainty about oil prices is significant. Earlier this fall, we waited an oil price of $ 100 a barrel next year. Now estimate our 70. We believe that the price will increase again, but it obviously can not be excluded a prolonged period of low prices.

– Why the price will rise again?

– Because a lower price means cuts in investment and hence lower oil ahead. When demand is expected continue to increase, this will push the price up again. For 2020, we estimate a price of around $ 95 a barrel.

– So the message to people is that there is no reason to cut down on Christmas purchases?

– No, not really. Whatever will to finance Christmas purchases this Christmas might not væe the most musical one can do. Folks economy will be fine next year. It can afford to buy at Christmas 2014 will also afford to buy at Christmas 2015.

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Published: 14.des. 2014 7:50