Macroeconomics
the Growth in the Norwegian economy will pick up in the future, shows new analysis from Statistics norway.
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the Activity in the Norwegian economy is going to take up in the coming years, alerts the central bureau of Statistics in prognoserapporten “Economic analysis” which was presented Thursday.
In the years waiting for SSB that growth in the Norwegian fastlandsøkonomi ends at a modest 0.7 per cent. For comparison, the growth in the last year of 1.1 percent, the weakest since finanskriseåret 2009.
Next year will the trend turn around.
Cover early next year
“Our calculations indicate that growth in the Norwegian economy will pick up in the time ahead, and that we get a konjunkturelt cover early next year”, writes the STATISTICS in the report.
There are several reasons for the hype:
- the Fall in demand from the petroleum industry will be muted significantly by 2017 and switch after each over in a moderate increase
- The international growth takes himself a bit up forward
- After reallønnsnedgang in the year will cover to growth in reallønningene contribute to higher growth in consumption going forward
- Næringsinvesteringene will also increase as a result of the improvement in the competitiveness of Norwegian export – and importkonkurrerende businesses the last few years
- housing investment will grow clear also in 2017 from a high level in the year
the Growth in the mainland economy is estimated to 1.7 per cent next year and to 2.2 and 2.1 per cent respectively in 2018 and 2019, according to the new forecast, which was presented Thursday.
the Agency has therefore revised down the estimate for growth, something compared with the forecasts from the previous report in september of this year. The biggest change is the growth next year that is taken down from 2,1 to 1,7 per cent.
New value
In the years after 2017 raining SSB, however, that the driving forces behind the economic changes highlighted.
“We assume that it will not get new significant stimuli from fiscal policy, housing investment will gradually go down slightly and a stronger krone will in isolation, slowing activity. On the other hand, the Norwegian economy, with the assumptions we have added to the reason, get a little boost from the petroleum industry both in 2018 and 2019,” writes the agency.
do not Believe in high growth
The reported recovery, however, is not particularly strong compared with oppgangsperiodene before and after the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
“There is no way that konjunkturomslaget will involve something particularly high aktivitetsvekst”, states SSB.
According to the forecasts will the unemployment rate only go slightly down in the course of the forecast. Employment is expected however to take care clear up, but it will also the labour supply, says STATISTICS in the report.
the rate of Unemployment measured by the labour force survey (lfs) is expected to fall from a peak of 4.7 per cent in the year to 4.5 per cent next year. Later in the period, the unemployment rate will fall further to reach 4.3 per cent in 2019.
Moderate economic activity and the continued high rate of unemployment makes that SSB on the assumption that Norges Bank keeps the key rate unchanged out 2019.
the Calculations in the report indicate that the krona will strengthen slightly from current levels, but deteriorates towards the end of the forecast.
the SSB expect that the expansive fiscal policy in 2017 and will be replaced by a neutral facility in 2018 and a slight innstramning the year after. Oljepengebruken will according to the calculations lie at roughly three per cent of the Government pension fund global in the forecast, said the report.
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