Thursday, December 1, 2016

So can bakrusen collect Opec after oljefest – E24

oil prices rose, oljeaksjer that Statoil had a jubeldag and at oil service companies was a party-maybe even a notch bigger, after Opec on Wednesday agreed on the first produksjonskuttet in eight years.

In Oslo step Obosx-index, with the largest oil service companies 5,31 per cent after it on Wednesday it was confirmed that the Opec for the first time in eight years introduces a ceiling on their total oil production.

Thursday continued recovery: Oljeserviceindeksen step the new five per cent on a day on which the benchmark index set a new record.

Analysts the world over were carried away, writes Bloombergs leading energireporter, as Wednesday got the inbox full of analysenotater with headlines such as “Opec is back”, “Opec’s in the driver’s seat” and “Opec’s gjenoppstandelse”.

But someone dares to go against the flow.

Opec is back, but be on guard, writes Abhishek Deshpande of Natixis in London.

Deshpande will find several weaknesses in the agreement that the commitment of Opec to cut their total daily oil production by 1.2 million barrels from 1. January 2017.

The greatest of the weaknesses is that the agreement adds up to the fact that each member country should stay in the skin, he believes.

Tillitsbasert

There is not much cheating to before the whole korthuset can race together. And there may be countries in Opec that see it in their interest to cheat, according to Thina Saltvedt, Nordea Markets.

The biggest question mark is Venezuela, they have had a tendency to sneak away, and the production is really reduced from before, said Saltvedt on E24 Wednesday.

Both Venezuela and Angola, are drawn forth by the Bloomberg as examples of members who are struggling heavily financially, and that if oil prices rise to around 60 dollars a barrel during the winter, will think it is a high price to pay to sit on the sidelines.

the Desire to be able to inkassere the extra winnings from the barrels they have promised not to produce, can come to trump the commitments they have made.

at the same time, Libya and Nigeria got approval from the rest of the organization not to participate in the cuts. It is because they are in the process of building up production after years of armed conflicts and closed facilities.

When their production rises forward, it will also be able to tempt the other.

agreement

the Iraqi’s will

As for Iraq, perhaps the country that has the most reason to go disappointed out of the negotiations.

just like Iran has the iraqis tried to get the green light for the special treatment, but it was not. After Opecs arrangements to Iraq cut its daily production of 210.000 barrels, and they have got a quota of 4.3 million barrels per day when the agreement enters into force.

But the will to live, this must be said to be low – all the way to the end in Vienna have the iraqis argued that they should take as its starting point a higher level for their production. Iraq says namely that in October produced 4.7 million barrels, and not the 4.5 that Opec assumes.

It is an important task to get control of the numbers that are actually reported, for the three ministers who will sit on the committee that will monitor the agreement.

Mute output

at the same time says analysts that even if someone is going to cheat, so will the cuts affect record oljelagrene as the world sits on now. Where for two days since estimated that the bearings would continue to increase at the beginning of the next year, expect now that the bearings will shrink.

But if this actually causes that oil prices rise to the levels you hope, it can also damage the bones of the agreement: With rising rates, demand could fall, which will make the prize of lower production less.

 <p>the WINNER: It is perhaps here in Midland, Texas, that the real winners after Opecs oljekutt are.</p>

WINNER: It is perhaps here in Midland, Texas, that the real winners after Opecs oljekutt exist.

Really the victor?

In addition will be declared already now is not Opec, but the american skiferoljesektoren, the actual winner after the oljekartellets cuts.

along the entire skiferoljebeltet in the united STATES are american manufacturers ready to fill up the empty space that occurs after Opecs 1.2 million daily barrels, and they 600.000 barrels that disappear if also Russia and Mexico keeps his part of the covenant.

U.s. oil production is as good as guaranteed to grow next year. All skiferoljeprodusenter will earn on this, but no more than in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico. We estimate that as many as 150 rigs will be reactivated where the next year, ” says Joseph Triepke, founder of the Infill the Thinking in Dallas to Bloomberg.

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