Norwegians have klokketro that the economy will not deteriorate in 2017. At the same time fear that interest rates will rise. – Reasonable expectations, ” says sjeføkonomer.
– I think it will be a good year, ” says Arild Thorkilsen.
He works a daily basis as a project manager in the Norwegian national rail administration, and meet VG in a juletravel Karl Johans gate shopping street in Oslo. Colleague, Christian Refsli, which is byggleder, agrees: Expatriates have little to worry about on the economic front in 2017.
THINK: Jeanette Power Ebbing, chief economist in DNB Markets, think overall, on the increase in 2017, but is not of itself of optimism.
Photo: Berit Roald / NTB scanpix
– I see the positive on the economy, ” says Refsli.
better times
The Norwegian people and sjeføkonomene are unanimous: 2017 will be a better year financially than 2016.
A survey InFact made for VG, shows that most of australians look positively on the coming year. Only 16 per cent believe privatøkonomien their will worsen in 2017. Almost 80 per cent believe it will improve, or stand in the same place.
– Our forecasts show a part of the same image, says chief economist Jeanette Power Ebb in DNB Markets.
– This corresponds with other surveys. There are reasonable expectations, ” says Harald Magnus Andreassen, chief economist of Swedbank.
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small increase
the Oil industry has gone through hard cuts in the year, but Andreassen points out that the oil industry has estimated that the approaching ferdigkuttet.
– It doesn’t get worse from where we are now, ” he says.
Ebb in DNB Markets says last year was a weak year for the Norwegian economy. Their forecasts show that there will be a slight increase from next year, although the unemployment rate also will increase.
– We think the unemployment rate will rise slightly. At that point, we are a bit more pessimistic than others. But overall, we think it will be a little better, ” says sjeføkonomen.
is Also chief economist of the confederation of Norwegian enterprise, Øystein Dørum, believe in increased growth the next year.
OPTIMIST: the chief economist of the confederation of Norwegian enterprise, Øystein Dørum, think next year will be better than 2016.
Photo: Terje Bendiksby, NTB scanpix
– But it means that the unemployment rate probably won’t go much down. It will be created more jobs, but will not give any inroads in ledighetskøen, ” he says.
chief economist Stone Reegård in the LO points out that it goes pretty good in most places except on the west coast, but he does not have faith on the decline in the unemployment rate:
– the Population increases much faster than the number of jobs. Thus, there are many who keep themselves away from the labour market. It will take a long time before we get any decline, ” says Reegård.
Disagreement about the level of interest rates
on Thursday allowed the Norges Bank key policy rate be left unchanged at 0.5 per cent. It was in advance broad agreement among analysts that the Norges Bank did not come to touch the key rate this time. The experts, among them the central bureau of Statistics, think that rentebunnen is reached, but that Norges Bank will not change interest rates until 2019.
It matches well with people’s flests perception of the interest rate: According to the survey carried out by Infact for VG, think only 5.4 per cent that it will be put down. Up to 80 per cent expect that the rate of interest goes up or remains at the current level: 37, 5 per cent think it will increase, while 41,6 think it will be stable.
DNB Markets’ forecasts show that interest rates will remain unchanged also in 2017.
– Norges Bank has announced that it is more likely that it will go down than up. But in a longer perspective, it is more likely that there will be higher interest rates, ” says Jeanette Power Flow.
chief economist Øystein Dørum in NHO do not believe Norges Bank will want or have the opportunity to increase interest rates next year, but realize that people fear it.
– Banks have increased the interest rate over time. Not because Norges Bank has increased the key policy rate, but because the banks innlånskostnader has increased. The long-term interest rates have also risen a lot in the past, ” says Dørum.
MEAN: Harald Magnus Andreassen, chief economist of Swedbank, don’t think we’ll see the goods we had left.
PHOTO: JAVAD PARSA, VG
– It is correct that interest rates are not going to go down, they are too low with respect to the housing market. It looks reasonable with a little upswing, and that the unemployment rate goes down slightly. But then should interest rates up again, ” says Andreassen of Swedbank.
– There is a kjempebrudd that we no longer can expect the same goods as we have had in the past. There is no reason to believe that we’ll come back, ” he says.
Andreassen in the Eika Group think the norwegians are going to borrow more money and forgjelde more in 2017.
– But even if interest rates are low, the world is still uncertain. Norwegians should perhaps be careful not to lend too much, he warns.
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a LITTLE BETTER: Student Adrian Steffensen (21) think it will go a little better financially in 2017 – he has in fact worked at the christmas market on the Egertorvet.
Photo: frode hansen, vg
International renteeffekt
He believes interest rates will remain unchanged due to the economic problems in the eurozone. He imagines a militærtropp: Pace (interest rates) need to be adapted to the treigeste:
– Greece and Italy are not resistant to renteoppgang from the current level. We have a mix of different stimulate growth internationally. Most people will not notice anything.
It has been speculated in how international events as the election of Donald Trump may affect Norwegian interest rates.
– the central Bank here in the country and internationally are governed by the inflation target. Should inflation take up sharply, it may be interest rates increases. We have no forecast of high inflation at home because of the strong krone, however, depends on international interest rates, ” says Ebb.
If Trump carries out many of the things he talked about in the election campaign, for example, when it comes to international trade, then it may push up prices in the united STATES, think low Tide:
– It can lead to that we may need to have higher interest rates, she says.
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