(Obi.en): the Unemployment rate rose by 1100 people during the month of november, according to seasonally-adjusted figures from the NAV. The sum of all the available and job seekers on measures rose by 500 people.
After several months of decline in the unemployment rate, we have seen an increase the last two months. Much of this is due to the fact that fewer workers participating in the measures and that more thus is completely available. In summary, the bruttoledigheten on the same level now as it was at the start of the year, says the ministry of labour and velferdsdirektør Sigrun Vågeng in a press release.
Troms and Hordaland county had the greatest percentage increase in the unemployment rate, while Finnmark and Akershus were the counties with the greatest decline.
Unemployment rose (percentage-wise) the most in the engineering and ICT subjects, as well as building and construction, where the trend has reversed after four months of decline in the unemployment rate.
78 200 completely available
At the end of november was 78 200 persons registered as totally available with NAV, 1000 fewer than in november of last year.
the Unemployment rate is now at 2.8 per cent of the workforce, down from 2.9 per cent in november last year. 2.8 per cent unemployment rate is also in line with consensus.
In all, 98 500 people are now either unemployed or job-seekers who participate in measures (bruttoledigheten), 2700 more than one year ago. This corresponds to 3.6 per cent of the labour force, compared to 3.5 per cent in november last year.
- Norges Bank underestimate the
After a few months with the decline in the number available, we have now had two months of recovery, and the difference between the LFS figures and registered available have become a little less, says DNB Markets.
- the Main picture is still a pretty lateral development in registered unemployment, and the increase in bruttoledigheten since Norges Bank’s septembermøte (the last three monthly figures we have) is only on the scarce 900 people. Two months with a slight increase in the unemployment rate is hardly enough to justify a rate cuts at the December meeting, but the last two numbers pointing in the direction of a slightly weaker labour market than it could look to a period in the summer, writes makroøkonom Jeanette Power Ebb in an update from the investment firm.
senior economist Halfdan Fenwick Grangård in Handelsbanken Capital Markets points out that Norges Bank has traditionally put more weight on the registered rate of unemployment than the LFS figures (statistics norway’s labour force survey), and that the development in both largely have been in line with forecasts from Norges Bank in september.
But the central bank’s estimate of the output gap looks to lean heavily against the registered unemployment rate. The LFS unemployment rate was 4.8 per cent in september, and suggests a much greater slack in the labour market than the registered unemployment rate. SSB has thrown some light on the variances between the two, and the most important understanding is that the registered unemployment rate for the most catching up to them that has become available after the cutbacks in the workforce, while the LFS figures reflect better the weaker pace of overall employment, he writes.
This suggests, according to the investment firm that the new groups face obstacles when entering the labor market.
But many of these do not have incentives to register as unemployed with NAV since they do not have rights to receive social security benefits. We believe Norges Bank is currently underestimate the degree of slack in the labour market, with its focus on registered unemployment in their assessment of the unemployment rate in Norway, writes Grangård.
Oljebremsen still on
At the end of november they had oljetunge the counties of Hordaland and Rogaland experienced the largest increase in the unemployment rate in the last year, with respectively 13 and 11 per cent.
the Unemployment rate has fallen most in Telemark and Nord-Trøndelag in the last year, specifically with respectively 20 and 19 per cent.
the Unemployment rate is highest in Rogaland and Aust-Agder, with respectively 4.5 and 3.5 per cent. Sogn and Fjordane and Oppland have the lowest unemployment rate, with respectively 1.6 and 1.8 per cent respectively.
the Highest rate of unemployment in the industry
the Unemployment rate has in the last year fell the most in building and construction work – 13 per cent. Within the engineering and ICT subjects, unemployment has increased by 21 per cent in the same period.
At the end of november was the unemployment rate the highest within manufacturing – 4.8 per cent of the labour force.
the Unemployment rate was the lowest within undervisningsyrker and academic careers, respectively 0,6 and 1,0 per cent.
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