While the export industry has rejoiced, has valutasituasjonen the last couple of years have been very unfavorable for those on the utenlandstur.
the Downturn in the oil industry has weakened the Norwegian krone powerful, and given us a much worse exchange rates of the major currencies euro, dollar and pound. The result has for many been tough kredittkortregninger after holiday trips to our most popular holiday destination outside the country’s borders.
The last month has, however, the crown strengthened.
on Tuesday afternoon, it looks like this:
- A euro costs 8,92 money
- An american dollar cost 7,99 dollars.
- A british pound costs 10,18 money
- A Swedish ten bucks costs 92,87 million
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The joyful message from valutaanalytikerne in Norway’s two largest banks is that this favorable valutautviklingen will continue.
the Euro and the dollar further down
After we last year had over 13 dollars for one british pound, it is now improvement in the wait and fairly quickly:
Valutastrateg Magne Østnor DNB Markets believe that we are going to see 9′s on the pound, already in the spring.
– Yes, the crown will continue to strengthen over time and this will happen in fits-and-starts. The crown is still weaker than what the prospects for the Norwegian economy would indicate. Even after the recent kronestyrking we have an abnormally weak crown, he believes.
Østnor has also good langtidsvarsler for two of the most important currencies for Norwegian vacationers:
– We also believe in the long term we see the euro down in the 8,20 money and the dollar all the way down to nok 6.50. Dollar development will admittedly take a bit of time here, we’re talking about around four years, believes Østnor.
Oljekutt well for the Norwegian feriebudsjetter
He says that the reasons for the favorable development for the Norwegian crown part is that the prospects for the Norwegian economy have improved, and that the probability that Norges Bank will cut interest rates have decreased.
Also last week’s OPEC decision to cut in oil production may be important for Norwegian ferieturisters wallets:
the OPEC agreement has helped to reduce the risk of a lower oil price, says Østnor who emphasizes that his estimates are conditional on oil prices and growth in the Norwegian economy picks up and unemployment has reached the top.
Alerts long-term dollar-strengthening
the senior analyst in Nordea Markets, Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen, also believe in an upturn for the Norwegian krone:
“I think we see the start of a fairly significant stronger dollar, but usually take this process quite a long time,” he says.
the Analyst also sees a dollar on the 7,40 money about two years time.
Eek-Nielsen says that foreign investors in the last couple of years have had a gloomy outlook on Norway and the Norwegian kroner in the light of oljeprisfallet.
Now it turns out that Norway runs quite well even on low oil prices and Norges Bank suggests that they are done with cutting interest rates at a level higher than other central banks. This is surprising to many. The crown comes from the very weak levels and the potential for appreciation is significant, and perhaps especially on a little run. We envision the euro going to fall against 8,50 money about one year, think Nordea’s senior analyst.
He believes however that the pound will strengthen as it will prove that England do well after Brexit, and do not expect to see the pound fall below 10 million in value.
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