(Obi.en): the Unemployment rate rose by 300 persons during the month of October, according to seasonally-adjusted figures from the NAV. The sum of all the available and job seekers on measures increased by 100 people.
After several months of decline, there was a small increase in the unemployment rate in October. The main picture is that the labor market has stabilized in 2016, among other things, because the increased unemployment in the oil industry have been offset by lower unemployment in the construction industry. We expect that we will go into a moderate oppgangskonjunktur next year, and that unemployment will fall in the next two years, says the ministry of labour and velferdsdirektør Sigrun Vågeng in a press release.
Sogn og Fjordane and Finnmark had the highest percentage increase in the unemployment rate, while Hedmark and Nordland were the counties with the greatest decline.
Unemployment rose (percentage-wise) the most in the engineering and ICT subjects, followed by manufacturing.
For the fourth month in a row has construction the largest decline in the unemployment rate.
77.800 completely available
At the end of October was 77.800 persons registered as totally available with NAV, 2.200 fewer than in October of last year.
the Unemployment rate is now at 2.8 per cent of the workforce, down from 2.9 per cent in October last year.
2.8 per cent unemployment rate is also in line with consensus.
In all 97.100 people are now either unemployed or job-seekers who participate in measures (bruttoledigheten), 2.700 more than one year ago. This corresponds to 3.5 per cent of the workforce, unchanged from October of last year.
Analysts: Stable
Makroanalytikerne look between your fingers with the increase in the unemployment rate in October.
Overall, the figures show a slight rise in the unemployment rate and a slightly weaker picture of the labour market after several months of decline in the number of unemployed and first-time applicants. But there is a long way to go up to the LFS the unemployment rate. The most obvious interpretation of the WELFARE numbers is that the labor market has stabilized, writes senior economist Kyrre Aamdal in DNB Markets.
- The registered unemployment rate, but it does not change the main picture. Including labor, moving the unemployment rate down sideways. The unemployment rate has generally been in line with Norges Bank’s estimates since the september report, writes chief analyst Erik Bruce at Nordea Markets.
There is a saying among economists that the Bank only looks at registered unemployment, and that the LFS figures from STATISTICS norway are less important. But senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov, Handelsbanken believes the picture is more nuanced.
the Key is that the LFS figures are rotating surveys, and they can therefore be quite volatile on a monthly basis. The monthly registered unemployment are struggling not with the same type of errors. Thus, the registered unemployment rate better to compare the change from one month to another, he writes in an update.
- But there is reason to believe that the registered unemployment rate does not capture the full and underutnyttelsen in the Norwegian labour market; especially not through this downturn. Therefore, Norges Bank has to balance the information from both the LFS and the registered number, in order to assess the overall degree of slack in the labour market, adding Gonsholt Hov.
Oljebremsen still on
At the end of October, five counties higher unemployment rate than one year ago. The increase is largest in Møre and Romsdal and Hordaland, followed by Rogaland, Vestfold and Finnmark.
the Unemployment rate has fallen most in Telemark and Nord-Trøndelag the past year.
the Unemployment rate is highest in Rogaland and Aust-Agder, respectively. 4,4 and 3,4 per cent. Sogn and Fjordane and Oppland have the lowest unemployment rate respectively. 1.5 and 1.8 per cent respectively.
Down in the building and construction
the Unemployment rate has in the last year fell the most in building and construction – 15 per cent. Within the engineering and ICT subjects, unemployment has increased by 21 per cent in the same period.
By the end of October was the unemployment rate the highest within manufacturing – 4.6 per cent of the labour force.
the Unemployment rate was the lowest within undervisningsyrker and academic careers, respectively. To 0.7 and 1.1 per cent.
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