Norway
Handelsbanken Capital Markets lowers the list.
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Handelsbanken Capital Markets expects the key rate will halve to 0.25 percent by the summer of next year.
“Normalveksten in Norway and internationally are lower before. This means that the interest rate in normal times are also going to be lower than before. We expect thus that interest rates are not going up in the foreseeable future, on the contrary, we expect further lower interest rate and see for ourselves that the key policy rate to be down to 0.25 per cent by the summer of next year”, called it in Handelsbankens konjunkturrapport for October.
- Will be pushed
chief economist Kari Due-Andresen points out that the lower potential growth pulls down the neutral rate of interest, and thus makes the monetary policy more often will bump against its lower limit.
the Interest rate banks receive on deposits in Norges Bank.
Is 0.5 per cent after the Norges Bank cut it by 0.25 percentage points in march.
Boliglånsrentene is approximately 1.5 percentage points higher than the key rate.
the Bank’s hovedstyres the next trough is 27. October.
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Less freedom on the downside, there will probably lead to that Norges Bank must worry more for the nedsiderisiko than oppsiderisiko for the economy, she believes.
“It is important to not tighten the monetary policy too early and thus risk to take the life of oppgangskonjunkturen before the economic growth has been properly attach. The way we see it, Norges Bank will be pressured to keep the key interest rate lower and longer than it now expects,” type Due-Andresen.
Not a negative interest rate
In march of this year cut the Norges Bank key policy rate to 0.5 per cent and warned that interest rates could be negative if the economic outlook were to deteriorate further.
economic growth has, however, developed significantly better than expected, and the negative interest rates are thus not particularly likely anymore, points out sjeføkonomen.
On the other hand, believes that Handelsbanken that rentebanen as the Norges Bank, put forward in september is based on optimistic expectations, in particular, to bedriftsinvesteringer and wage growth.
Weaker investments
Due-Andresen waiting still much spare capacity in firms and weak growth in demand internationally as along with lower potential growth will keep bedriftsinvesteringene down in the time to come.
at the same time, Norwegian companies will struggle in the international competition as a result of that the production costs in Norway remain high, ” she believes.
“the Norges Bank’s latest regional nettverksundersøkelse and The last investeringsundersøkelse for the manufacturing industry also indicates that the growth in the bedriftsinvesteringene forward will be substantially weaker than Norges Bank are now seeing for themselves”, she writes.
Stable euro
As the Norges Bank is done with cutting interest rates waiting Handelsbanken limited upside for the nok in the short term. Handelsbanken think the euro will be traded around 9,00 million in the next nine months.
“For that the crown should strengthen further, we believe that the interest market must rule out the possibility of new rate cuts. It is not the case today, and we think it is too early to call off further monetary easing”, it is called.
Towards the end of next year and into 2018, however, see Handelsbanken for a gradual and moderate appreciation of the crown.
a Stronger us dollar
Handelsbanken expects The u.s. central bank lifts target for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points, while The european central bank seems to be able to make its monetary policy even more expansive.
This is expected to cause the euro against the dollar fall down to 1,07 next year at the same time that Brexit could contribute to the decline in the euro against the dollar persists, says Handelsbanken.
Seksmånederskursmålet for the dollar against the Norwegian krone implies a rise to 8,40 money.
“We expect that the krone exchange rate remains around the current level in the near future, but if the crown should strengthen further or premiums increase further, it may help that the interest rate be lowered faster”, states the konjunkturrapporten.
| Handelsbankens makroprognoser | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| final Consumption expenditure of households | 2,1 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 2,1 | 2,2 |
| Private investment – fastland | -0,3 | 3,5 | 3,3 | 2,6 | 2,0 |
| Oljeinvesteringer | -15,0 | -16,1 | -5,8 | -1,5 | 2,0 |
| BNP | 1,6 | 0,7 | 1,2 | 1,3 | 1,6 |
| Fastlands-BNP | 1,1 | 0,9 | 1,7 | 1,9 | 2,0 |
| Inflation KPI | 2,1 | 3,7 | 2,3 | 1,2 | 1,1 |
| Arbeidsledighet | 4,4 | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,7 | 4,6 |
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