on Wednesday afternoon came the final confirmation that Opec will cut oil production.
When had the price of oil gone up and down like a jojo, from well below 48 dollars a barrel in the morning to over 51 dollars a barrel and back down again at 50. But after the news that Opec had failed to agree, rose again to over 51 dollars a barrel.
Despite much disagreement about byrdefordelingen, therefore, Opec is now cutting production by 1.2 million barrels per day, and puts a ceiling of 32.5 million barrels per day from 1. January.
– There are historic pictures of this, ” says Pareto analyst Trond Omdal to E24.
It is eight years since the last cut in production, and last were the not the cuts, per country, ” he says.
Opec confirms cut
These cuts the most
This is the six member states who sacrifices most of its own production, according to Opecs own calculation:
- Saudi Arabia cuts 486.000 barrels per day to 10,06 million barrels per day
- Iraq cuts 210.000 barrels of oil per day to to 4.35 million barrels per day
- United Arab Emirates cutter 139.000 barrels per day to 2,87 million barrels per day
- Kuwait cuts 131.000 barrels per day to 2,71 million barrels per day
- Venezuela cuts 95.000 barrels per day to 1,97 million barrels per day
- Angola cuts 80.000 barrels per day to 1,67 million barrels per day
An important question is whether the countries actually come to implement the cuts. The organization has established a committee of three ministers to oversee that the members adhere to the plans.
– I expect good discipline in Opec, ” says Omdal.
BENEFITS CUTS: This is the Pareto-analyst Trond Omdals table of how the Opec cuts are allocated between the various manufacturers. Indonesia is no longer the Opec member.
Iran gets boost
Iran is the only country that gets to increase its production after agreement. The land will get increase by 90,000 barrels per day to 3.8 million barrels per day.
OPEC-tops talked the price of oil up before skjebnemøte
This is very close to flat five per cent cut, says Omdal about the numbers.
But Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi (united arab emirates) and Kuwait have given the most. Saudi Arabia has given in to Iran, and more or less given them fripass, ” he says.
Iran gets increase the production its something out from Opecs calculation, but do not put a ceiling on the production of 3,975 million barrels, as it had claimed, says Omdal.
Also, Nigeria and Libya don’t have to cut, something that was expected. Countries have had production problems due to war and unrest.
Iraq released
the Cuts were largely in line with the Omdal had seen for themselves in advance, with Iraq as one exception.
It surprised a tiny bit is that Iraq has not received any special treatment, ” says Omdal.
But Opecs calculation does not go all the way up with the roof the organization has set itself on to 32.5 million barrels per day, according to the Pareto-analyst.
– When I add this in my calculation I come to the 32,7 million barrels per day, ” he says.
It is strange, he adds.
the Days to come will provide ample opportunity for the analysts to dive into the numbers and come up with their interpretations.
Russia cuts
In addition to Opecs cuts have Russia and other non-members also committed themselves to cut 600,000 barrels per day in production, which in the case can contribute to strengthening oil prices. Russia should, according to the Opec cut of 300,000 barrels per day of this.
But Motifs can not convince before he can see which country it is, and that they are really committed.
– It is not very specific, ” he says.
” We know that some countries, such as China, the fall in production. I don’t know if they just enter it in the calculation. Currently we know only about Russia, ” he says.
Other Opec cut
Also the smaller producers in Opec contributes to the agreement according to their ability. This is the Opec countries that will cut at least:
- Algeria cuts 50,000 barrels per day to 1.04 million barrels per day
- Qatar cut to 30,000 barrels per day to 618.000 barrels per day
- Ecuador cuts 26.000 barrels of oil per day to 522.000 barrels per day
- Gabon cuts to 9,000 barrels per day to 193.000 barrels per day
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