SSB: Two years oljenedtur can approach the end – Hegnar Online

Reduced the fall in petroleum investment and somewhat higher growth in exports, næringsinvesteringene on the mainland and the consumption is expected to provide increasing economic growth and slightly lower unemployment. At the same time calculated the growth in house prices to slow down noticeably it’s called in statistics norway’s fresh konjunkturrapport.

The sharp decline in demand from the petroleum sector and weak international demand growth affects still the Norwegian economy. The average GDP growth in Mainland Norway through the last nine quarters is on the meager 0.8 per cent measured as an annual rate. According to the labour force survey (LFS) increased the unemployment rate by 1.6 percentage points to a peak in summer at 5 per cent. The last few months has the unemployment rate gone down slightly as measured by the LFS, while the nav’s figures on registered available and persons on the measure has been stable.

Changing driving forces

The current economic downturn is, according to the STATISTICS norway have been tempered by rentereduksjoner and that the fall in oil prices has led to a weaker krone. Expansive fiscal policy has also contributed. In 2017 will decline in petroleumsinvesteringene braked and turn to a moderate recovery. Still somewhat expansive impulses from the fiscal and monetary policies will contribute to slightly higher growth in household consumption and in næringsinvesteringene. Developments in the housing market will also give the major contribution to the aktivitetsveksten next year. The Norwegian economy will get any more boost from the international economy, though developments here are now characterized by great uncertainty. Overall therefore we will see a cover to a higher economic growth through 2017. In the years then computes their STATISTICS, however, that the driving forces behind the economic changes highlighted.

“We assume that it will not get new significant stimuli from fiscal policy, housing investment will gradually go down slightly and a stronger krone will in isolation, slowing activity. On the other hand, the Norwegian economy, with the assumptions we have added to the reason, get a little boost from the petroleum industry both in 2018 and 2019″, is called.

Trump tips not the prospect of slightly higher international growth, but…

STATISTICS norway assumes that Norway’s trading partners now are close to the cyclical trough, but the upturn is expected to be moderate. High private and public gjeldsnivåer damper on growth. Reform in China to a more konsumdrevet economy also works in the direction to reduce the stimulants to the rest of the world. In addition, increased protectionism curb the trend in international demand.

“Donald Trump’s victory in the us presidential election 8. november has created increased uncertainty about the future economic developments around the world. A more protectionist u.s. policies will entail negative impulses to the world economy, and could lead to international trade conflicts. On the other hand, extensive skatteletter to households and businesses as well as large investments in infrastructure, give u.s. economy a lift. We assumes that the change in policy in the united STATES will not affect the growth of the world economy much, but the uncertainty is perceived as large and the probability that it may go worse than we add to the reason seems larger than that it will go better,” writes STATISTICS norway.