The arrows pointing upwards for the Norwegian economy – Sunnmørsposten

We envision an increase from early next year, says SSB researcher Torbjørn Eika.

According to the latest estimates from STATISTICS norway, which was presented Thursday, the fall in the oil industry flat-out, while the growth in fastlandsnæringer will take up. It will give economic growth of around 2 per cent in the next three years.

Moreover, the positive effects of a weak dollar – which has great significance for the Norwegian export is not exhausted, believe the statisticians.

Thus, the norwegians go brighter times in the face. This year has inflation proved to be higher than previously estimated, while wages have risen less. This has overall led to a larger decline in goods than the SSB thought earlier in the year.

Also, unemployment will fall slightly over the next few years. But it will still be high, says STATISTICS norway.

the Unemployment rate will probably not fall below 4.3 percent. It is relatively much to be in Norway, says Eika.

Falling house prices

Also, the housing market will turn around in 2018, predicts the SSB. Already in 2019 it may be a real decline in house prices, particularly because of the high housing construction and moderate growth in real disposable income, mean Eika.

But it is not the talk of a housing bubble that burst, adds he.

“We’re talking about a modest slowdown,” says Eika, which will not provide advice to potential home buyers to wait a few years.

– But if you take our numbers and forecasts literally, is it not obvious, then a good idea to wait, he says to NTB.

There will also be large geographical price variations, he points out.

Continued low interest rates

on the other hand do not see the STATISTICS for any rate increases in the next three years after that boliglånsrentene was recently set up. Money market rates will probably stay low for a long to come, predicts statisticians.

Low interest rates have got the norwegians to take up large loans, and the financial supervisory authority of norway expressed recent concern over the historically high indebtedness, as the audit opinion increases the drop in the Norwegian economy.

– It is worrying is if you get a powerful surge in boliglånsrenta, ” says Eika, who do not even believe boliglånsrenta will rise by more than 0.1 percentage points.

But the high ratio, however, is an argument for not putting the interest rate further down, he says.

Trump effect

Researchers have also tried to analyse what effect the election of Donald Trump to the United states ‘ next president will have for the global economy.

Scientists fear the first of that Trump will make the seriousness of the to introduce a more protectionist trade policies. It can among other things make Norwegian exports less attractive on the world market.

If he gets the green light for anything near what he has talked about, it will be able to put a significant damper on international trade and growth, ” says researcher Andreas Benedictow to the NTB.

– It will affect the whole of the Norwegian economy, with lower growth and greater unemployment, ” he says.