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the Agreement between the Opec and the 11 other oil-producing countries to reduce the daily oil production has sent oil prices sharply up. – A metamorphosis for the oil market, believes the S & P Global Platts.
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the Opec countries were to agree on a produksjonskutt in Vienna for almost two weeks ago of 1.2 million barrels. At the weekend, an agreement was concluded with 11 other countries to reduce production by almost 600,000 barrels. Russia will account for half of this reduction.
the oil price has risen by over 4.2 per cent in asian trade. Nordsjøolje (Brent spot) is located on the 56.6 kilobytes per second (dollars a barrel. Oil prices have increased by 26,7 per cent since the 14. november when it was 44,7 dollars.
This is a very clear and distinct message that the producers want to balance the market with higher prices. As a intensjonserklæring this is as “bullish” as it is possible, says chief strategist Chris Weston at IG in Australia to Bloomberg News.
– the Strength and cohesion
Russia and Saudi Arabia have a need for a higher oil price to balance budgets. Saudi Arabia is planning a delprivatisering of the oil company Saudi Aramco in 2018, and a higher oil price will make it more interesting for international investors to buy in.
the Oil – and energianalytikere is surprised that Opec and the 11 other oil-producing countries – led by Russia, Mexico, Azerbaijan, and Oman – have managed to agree on a produksjonskutt.
Analysts at S & P Global Platts believes the agreement between the Opec and other oil producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, Mexico and Azerbaijan – a signal that the oil market is in a “metamorphosis” – a profound transformation.
“the Agreement highlights the strength and cohesion between the global manufacturers. This may mark a new samarbeidsepoke with the aim of bringing stability back to the global oil market,” writes S & P Global Platts in a report.
Challenging obligations
Produksjonskuttene to start the 1. January, but it will take time before production can be reduced. The S & P Global Platts believes it will take several months before the produksjonskuttene are met.
There is also an open about the producing countries manage to keep production in check if oil prices do jumped and approaching 70 dollars a barrel over the next six months.
Usually they manage to comply with the obligations in the beginning, but when the prices go up starting the engagement to disappear, ” says chairman Gary Ross Pira Energy Group, which is a analyseselskap which is part of the S & P Global Platts, in a comment.
He believes that this is a very positive development.
– the Goal is to get a faster balance in the oil market. Produksjonskutt will lead to that lagerbeholdningene falls, will send the market in reverse to get the highest possible price, ” says Ross.
What makes skiferprodusentene?
the Question is what the american skiferoljeprodusenter will do when there is the prospect of a far higher oil price. Ukestatistikkene from Baker Hughes show that in the last week were initiated production of 21 oil rigs. This is the highest number since January.
– It seems that the Opec agreement, and the fact that we are nearing the end of the year, making sure it sets in time to produce oil again. Some may also need to put in the time before the end of the year to not break leases, ” says market analyst Phil Flynn with the Price Futures Group, to Marketwatch.
Experts disagree about how much does american skiferoljeproduksjon will have on the oil market if prices stabilize at around 60 per barrel.
– Skiferoljeprodusentene will not compensate for the reduction in 2017. There is a significant delay, said Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Khalid al-Falih at the weekend.
He also indicated that Saudi Arabia is willing to cut more in the production if it proves necessary.
I can tell you with extreme certainty that from 1. January we shall cut in oil production and we should cut more than what we committed ourselves to the 30. november, he said during a press conference.
Markets
the Monday started with a årsbeste for the Nikkei index. It is still an increase of 0.5 per cent, but investors flee from the stock exchanges in China and Hong Kong.
the Shanghai index has dropped by over two percent and the Shenzhen index is almost three percent lower.
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