Do not believe in oljekutt from Opec and Russia – Aftenposten

the Organization of oil producing countries (OPEC) set a new shaped in september, according to a recent report from the international energy agency IEA. Also, Russia’s oil production was at its highest level since the downfall of the Soviet union.

Last month the OPEC countries agreed for the first time in eight years to cut oil production to help increase oil prices, and on Tuesday came to Russia and said that Russian oil companies will cut production.

But oljeanalytiker Torbjørn Kjus of DNB don’t think you will see any real cuts in its production, neither from the OPEC countries or Russia when it comes to the piece.

– game theory

He points out that it is already clear that the OPEC countries Libya and Nigeria are going to stand outside cut agreement, and increase production going forward.

I have baked in growth from these countries, and think they are going to increase production a little more than the rest of OPEC is going to cut, ” he says.

Opec countries decide at a meeting in the end of november how much each country must cut in production. Kjus emphasizes that kuttambisjonene to OPEC historically has been higher than the numbers. He refers to the fact that OPEC countries in the last two kuttrundene, in 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 have ended with the cutting respectively 74 per cent and 85 per cent of that which was our ambition.

the Cause is uncertain figures and lack of sanksjonsmuligheter countries in between.

– It is like game theory where all are betting that Saudi Arabia is doing most of the work, and that they can achieve the higher price of oil without even cutting into production, ” he says.

In this round, I think they are going to deliver about 50 per cent of the cuts they add up to, he adds.

Lower production and higher price

Something produksjonskutt from the Russian federation of significance has he also not particularly believe in, despite the fact that both Putin and Russia’s energy minister Aleksandr Novak said that Russian companies are willing to cut production.

– I will not post this before we see it going less oil out of Russia, ” he says, and points out that the country has not cut as announced in similar situations in the past.

Kjus, nevertheless, believe that global oil production will fall slightly forward, even if OPEC don’t get to the cut. The reason is that the production falls in many other countries. He thinks it will make oil price rises to 55 per barrel on average in the year’s final months, before the price increases to around 60 dollars a barrel during the first quarter of next year.

Think Saudi Arabia will take responsibility

Oljeanalytiker Thina Saltvedt at Nordea agree with Kjus in that it is highly uncertain whether OPEC will manage to cut production, but is somewhat more optimistic on both the organization’s and Russia’s behalf.

She points to the fact that OPEC has suggested a cut in production of between 600.000 and 1 million barrels per day, while Libya and Nigeria can increase its production with a maximum of 300,000 barrels together.

Saudi Arabia has indicated that the country can cut 500.000 barrels alone, ” says Saltvedt.

She believes it is most likely that OPEC will agree on a moderate cut in the meeting 30. november, and that the cuts begin to take effect from January next year. She also has faith in cuts from Russia, which recently signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia to the monitoring of the oil market.

She also calculates that the price of oil will increase to 55 dollars a barrel in the year’s final months, and that the price will pass the $ 60 in the course of the first half of next year.