There was one bright spot in the flood of Norwegian macroeconomic figures Friday. “ForbrukerMeteret” improved slightly, from minus 11.7 to minus 10.1, Finance writes newspaper.
Otherwise, it was gray or black across the board also Friday after two different economic indicators Thursday warned clear downturn.
The biggest disappointment came in the consumption figures. After fairly strong growth in November, retail sales fell 1.3 percent, far worse than expected.
The reason seems clear: November Promotion was because people Christmas acted in “Black Friday.” Thus, in December a flabby store month, except to decent growth in matkjøpene.
More March cut
Handelsbanken Capital Markets believes according Finansavisen that the Norwegian macro numbers increase expectations about an imminent rate cuts from Norges Bank.
Chief Economist Kari Due-Andresen believes the weak growth in consumption in December strengthens the suspicion that the November figure was inflated by additional sales related to “Black Friday”.
If December trend continues into 2016, suggests that a consumption drop of around 0.7 percent in the first quarter. Due-Andresen think household consumption should increase significantly for Norges Bank’s consumption estimates for 2016, enter, Finance writes newspaper.
Also, senior economist Kyrre Aamdal DNB Markets now believe that a lot of Christmas shopping was moved forward in time through “Black Friday.” And even for November and December were overall consumption growth weak, he stressed.
Credit growth dropped slightly, but solely because of the drop in local government borrowing zeal. The trend is still clearly negative. Moving three-month average of credit growth has fallen from 5.0 percent to 4.1 percent now.
Unemployment, Navs registered numbers, increased further, and perhaps a touch more than Norges Bank expected.
Oil Vacancy
In January, the number of unemployed by 800, or 1,100 including measures spaces. In January, the unemployment rate thus 93,000 (109,300 measures). It gave an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.4 percent, 4.0 including measures.
Still unemployment just as the “oil counties,” in practice the southern coast. In 13 of the counties the unemployment rate, while it decreased in the remaining counties.
Senior Economist Marius Gonsholt Hov, also at Handelsbanken Capital Markets, believes according Finansavisen also that the labor was marginally on the weak side Norges Bank’s expectations, but hardly enough to mean big in itself.
Buying more money
Friday Norges Bank announced that the daily currency purchases increase from 500 million in January to 900 million in February. This was an unexpectedly strong rise and Aamdal think the reason is significantly downgraded tax estimates from the oil companies.
The final sum in the foreign exchange market after the series of weak performance was a weakening against the euro at 04.05 cents, despite the fact that oil prices Friday Tomorrow remained clearly above 35 dollars a barrel.
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