In his annual told Governor Øystein Olsen that Norway now, after a long and wonderful summer, faces a long and cold winter. He has probably right, but then Nav yesterday came with unemployment figures, there was not much to see of winter and letdown. Unemployment increased namely with only 300 people in February, and we look at the sum of the unemployed and job seekers to preventive measures, the number was only 100.
This is in glaring contrast to the daily reports of new layoffs and layoffs as coming from all the companies in the oil and gas sector.
Nav has registered 90,900 people as unemployed, which is 9,400 more than a year ago, but the unemployment rate is only 3 , 3 percent of the workforce. Included in labor market programs will be 108,400 (4 percent). Statistics Norway (SSB) which came with the so-called LFS survey a few days ago, concluded that unemployment fell from 4.6 percent to 4.5 percent, and that there are 126,000 in the queue. The difference is that Nav detects anyone who signs up employment offices, while SSB find their numbers at the interviews. There is therefore little lobster and canary with SSB figures. Nav numbers are better.
Can Norway now call off the crisis?
What we see is that unemployment rises sharply in counties with oil business, from Aust-Agder Trøndelag, while unemployment actually falling in Hedmark and in Nordland. In Oppland, Sogn og Fjordane and Troms, unemployment only 2.3 percent.
We do not believe this dichotomy of economy will remain. Unemployment will continue to rise in Rogaland and Hordaland, and it will spread to the rest of the country. So they notice it in Kristiansand and a prosperity municipality Asker.
Some even believe that unemployment rates are so low that Norges Bank will not cut interest rates in March, and if you look only at 3.3 percent vacant , this could have something for themselves, but the fact is that the growth in Norway has almost come to a halt (up 0.1 percent in Q4).
the investments in oil and gas will drop by 10-15 percent this year, down to 163 billion, and it can be just as bad in 2017. the winter is long.
Crude had a small upturn (Brent oil $ 35 per. barrels of writing moment) and it may well be that the bottom is passed (this time), but we do not think that there is an end to layoffs and layoffs in everything from oil and gas to do.
the supplier industry is in crisis, and yet it seems that it is abroad the biggest cuts are taken, but as drilling rigs, supply vessels and seismic vessels laid up, the employees also out. Goods crisis out in 2016 and 2017, as it appears today, we have only seen the beginning of redundancies.
Currently, the shareholders who have taken the brunt – ahead will be the employees.
We were a little cheated February figures. It is the winter to come.
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