Chief Economist Elisabeth Holvik in Sparebank 1 Gruppen is out with a new monthly report.
She does not believe that Norges Bank cut interest rates at the May meeting.
– At the Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and that it gave a sharp strengthening of the yen is probably something Norges Bank has noted. The danger is that when the market is confident that Norges Bank is ready to cut interest rates, it will be a “one-way bet” that the krone will strengthen, writes Holvik.
Selects Norges Bank to cut rate to 0.25 percent in May, the probability of further cuts according to chief economist be very small.
– With a slightly stronger oil price, could trigger penny purchase. However, if they choose to wait, nor say that they were considering cutting but would await something, they buy themselves time and keeps currency market tension. Unemployment fell in April, and that the oil price has risen to nearly 50 dollars are also arguments to await a new rate cut anything, continues Holvik.
Deferred wealth?
chief economist believe Norges Bank will await and see if the government is going to take measures to stimulate the economy of the state budget when the revised National submitted on 11 may.
– We think it might be a little påplussing of targeted measures to help the areas been hardest hit by the downturn, she continues.
Holvik also underscores the great need for risk capital to “the restructuring that must now take place in Norwegian industry.”
– Maybe it could be an idea to introduce a rule on deferred payment of wealth tax on working capital of the company that the working capital is tied up in a profit? There may be a temporary emergency measure that will ensure that more capital will remain in the companies and thus will contribute to the safeguarding of jobs and new investments, writes Sparebank 1-economist.
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