Today presented Property Norway house price statistics for July.
It shows a decrease of 1.1 percent. When prices are adjusted for seasonal variations, equivalent to a fall of 0.3 percent.
House prices have risen demed 6.8 percent since July last year. It is the first since 2013 that the seasonally adjusted boligrisene falls, the rain from the previous month.
Strong growth in June
Summer months are often a quiet time in the housing market. This year still increased square meter prices averaging 1.1 per cent from May to June.
– A sign that many are investing in housing
It was therefore linked stress to July figures, that few thought could be equally good.
The decline in house prices, a total of 1.1 per cent from June to July. The average price per square meter is now at 34,619 kroner.
– June was much stronger than we had anticipated. In that sense we may see a correction now in July, and overall it’s a pretty normal development for the summer, says CEO of Real Estate Norway, Christian V. Dreyer.
– Growth flattens
So it is expected that prices will increase again in August, with more homes on the market and more eager buyers.
Property Norway believe seasonality will be smoothed out by the end of the year.
– The supply side will increase the part, so we will get a good balance in the housing market, most places in the country. Prices will increase in August, but then they will probably go down slightly again during the last quarter, says Dreyer.
Thus, the overall growth by 2015 end at somewhere between three and five per cent, he said.
Compared to July last year, prices have risen 6.8 percent in the last twelve months.
Interpreters careful
Chief Economist Øystein Dørum in brokerage DNB Markets are cautious interpretation of today’s housing figures for July.
– The numbers fluctuate from month to month. Today’s figures may therefore be expressed coincidences in a month when sales of homes is 40 percent lower than the rest of the year, he said.
But it can also be warning about a turnaround in the housing market
– We’ve been waiting a flattening and decline in housing prices. So if current figures are expressed fundamentals, it’s as expected. Then it marks simultaneously a break with a long-term development of rising prices, he said.
Folks revenue, the provision of new housing and interest rates are some fundamentals that explain changes in housing prices.
DNB Markets predicted in April that prices will start to fall from October this year and then fall through 2016.
In today’s morning report predicted Dørum that the seasonally adjusted prices in July would rise by 0.5 per cent from June. The answer was a fall of 0.3 percent.
Large regional differences
The only region that still had a price increase in the housing market in July was Oslo, with 0.2 percent increase.
The change in house prices in Oslo has increased a total of 11.7 per cent last year.
Tromsø is in second place, with a rise of 10.6 percent over the last twelve months. Dreyer says cities will continue to push up inflation.
– There have with population growth and housing construction to do. We see that Oslo still face greater challenges than the other regions with getting enough homes on the market, and here we expect continued pressure and rising prices, says Dreyer.
Oslo and Stavanger represent the extremes in the statistics. The past year has Stavanger had a decrease in 1.3 percent in housing prices. The biggest price decline in July was in Sandnes by 2 percent, while Follo and Asker had a decline of 1.9 percent.
The July figures are difficult
Also Chief Economist Steinar Juel in brokerage Nordea Markets is careful not to draw too much out of today’s numbers.
– I’m a little surprised. The July figure may indicate that the sharp rise in prices in June was a fling. But July is a month with low turnover, and we have seen “unusual” figures for July before. The seasonally adjusted decline may therefore be random, he said.
When he sees the past few months as a whole, he uses the phrase “jump and bounce” of housing prices.
– We Need more numbers before we can determine if a lasting turnaround in the housing market is underway, he said.
Longer sales time
At the end of July 9749 dwellings for sale at Finn.no. We must go back to 2006 to find a July month with fewer active housing ads than this year.
It also took longer to sell homes in July than the previous month. Average Sales Time in Oslo were still on average only 21 days.
– We have never registered a lower number of homes for sale in Oslo than we have now, says Christian V. Dreyer in Real Estate Norway.
More new homes
Homebuilders Association announced yesterday that so far have been launched 29,000 new housing projects this year. There is a sharp increase from last year.
The largest growth in both sales and commissioning is in Oslo and Akershus, and most of the new housing projects are apartments.
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