The pace of the world economy is projected to increase next year. OECD believes global growth will end at 3.75 per cent in 2015, against 3.25 per cent this year, according Aftenposten.
Some better times in Europe and solid growth in the US will contribute to it, but uncertainties are many.
Here are four factors that will be crucial in 2015:
1. Geopolitical unrest in Russia and in other oil producers
Tough economic sanctions because of the conflict in Ukraine and an oil price has been halved since last summer has sent the Russian economy to the precipice.
– The Prevailing uncertainty about what is going to happen in Russia ahead and relations between Russia and Ukraine. This poses a risk that can affect the financial markets next year, says Erik Bruce, chief analyst at Nordea Markets.
Also several other oil-producing countries are struggling with rising budget deficits as a result of oil price fall.
– Basically should lower oil be good for the world economy, but it can create increased geopolitical unrest. It can get broad negative effects for the rest of the world.
2. Fear of Chinese debt bubble
China has been an engine of the world economy in recent decades.
In the period from 2000 to 2013 China’s economy grew by an average of 9.9 percent per. year, according to figures from the IMF. It is estimated that China will overtake the US and become the world’s biggest economy in late 2014 or early in 2015.
Now put several questioned whether growth has been sustainable.
– Both households, local authorities and businesses in China have made enormous debt. It is quite clear signs of imbalances in the Chinese economy, said Bruce.
If the structure of the debt would have an abrupt end and people suddenly start saving, China could blow it reminiscent collapse during the financial crisis in 2008.
– China is an important export market for many countries, such a scenario would be serious for the whole world economy. But we believe that the Chinese government manages to control the situation and that the Chinese manage to avoid going on a real bang, says Bruce.
3. Deflation ghost in Europe
Inflation in the eurozone has fallen in recent years and continued to decline through 2014. The figures for November showed a rise in lean 0.3 percent.
– The big fear is that prices should stop completely to grow and instead begin to fall. It will be very serious, says Bruce.
Falling wages and prices makes people postpone purchases because they know that the goods are cheaper in the future. Meanwhile frames that people with debt hard because wages are lower, while the installments on the loan is exactly the same as before.
– The fear is that the cautious recovery in the eurozone as we have seen in recent years, disappears. The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced that it will take action to bring up inflation, but the question is how effective these will be, says Bruce.
He points out that the interest rate in the eurozone is already very low – 0.05 percent. The Bank must therefore resort to other measures to relaunch the economy.
– It is likely that the ECB will start to print money like the US, UK and Japan have done. We hope that it will help, but we are uncertain effects, says Bruce.
4. Still shopping spree in the US
Figures on Tuesday showed that the United States had a growth of 5 percent in the third quarter this year. It is the fastest growth in a single quarter since 2003.
– The US is one of the few major economies in the world who have a solid and healthy growth of the moment, says Bruce.
The consumption grows sharply, while unemployment has fallen to 5.8 percent in the United States. In comparison, 11.6 percent of unemployed in the euro zone.
– The US has been a positive surprise this year. It will be important for the rest of the world that this recovery continues in 2015, said Bruce.
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