Can have enormous consequences, warns macro panel.
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– Giant China ambitious transition from an investment-driven, fast growing economy with large imbalances to a mature and more slowly growing economy is a wildcard for the global growth outlook, says senior economist Kjersti Haugland DNB Markets.
She and the other four economists in DN macro panel answering questions about the international factors that are most important to the world economy in the future.
Chief Economist Shakeb Syed Sparebank 1 Markets mentions developments in China as one of three key issues in 2015. The other two he thinks about oil prices and whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will commence full-scale quantitative easing.
– Will 2015 be turning point in China? I do not believe it, but the risk is there, he says.
Chief strategist Erica Blomgren SEB Norway adds “political risk” list.
– The situation in Russia is worrying, says she said.
Portfolio Manager Olav Chen Storebrand also points the United States.
– Whether the US economy can keep global growth up while it is still low growth in the Eurozone, is one of the main questions, he said.
This is macro panel: See chart at the bottom of the matter!
Covers
While economists hope and believe in a soft landing in China, emphasizes Chen that lower growth rate and change of growth drivers anyway affect the outside world.
– When China goes from being investment-driven to become more consumer-driven, can have enormous consequences for the global economy, he said.
– Putting it bluntly, they shall go from building roads and homes to cut each other’s hair and eating at restaurants. That is going from increasing raw material and energy consumption to more service consumption. The latter benefits the domestic service industry, but hardly oil production in Norway or other commodity exporters, Chen said.
Three points
While Blomgren SEB Norway calls situation in Russia “disturbing,” she positive Hawaii.
– I believe in a strong recovery and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates during the summer. It will strengthen the dollar, which is helpful for many other countries that are struggling with sluggish growth and relies on low exchange rates, she says.
Blomgren further shows that many countries are still dependent on monetary stimulus. Haugland DNB Markets believes the high debt burden in key industrialized will “continue to put a damper on growth in the foreseeable future.”
– Hopefully we steer away new periods of turmoil in financial markets related to this topic. Reformvilje- and ability in key member states, and progress in its efforts to associate monetary union closer together politically, will be crucial for the eurozone comes back fully, she said.
Oil Fall
A long warned decrease in activity on the Norwegian shelf until next year exacerbated by the oil price has fallen by about 40 percent since the summer.
– The sharp fall in oil prices will have great significance for the world economy, beats chief economist Bjørn Roger Wilhelmsen in hedge fund Nordkinn Asset Management firm.
Oil price fall could not at least create some new uncertainties, such as a sharp deterioration of the economic situation in Russia, he points out.
– drop in oil prices will also lead to lower inflation globally, but there is no threat in my view. Lower inflation expectations, however, will motivate new quantitative easing from the ECB, which will have a positive effect on the markets, says Wilhelmsen.
For the world economy as a whole, a lower oil level is good news, says the economists.
– As oil prices fell largely supply-side driven, it will provide a positive stimulus – especially the US economy, says Wilhelmsen.
Syed refer to its own forecasts, which says that the oil price will rise to $ 75 a barrel in 2015 and to $ 88 barrel in 2016 from the current level of around $ 60 a barrel.
– If we wrong and oil prices remain at current extremely low levels, this will have a positive impact on the world economy, says Syed.
On DN.no Sunday believe this macro panel on house prices in 2015.
Previous Affairs:
– This has changed the balance of risks in Norway
This is crucial for the Norwegian economy in 2015
To affect oil drop your finances in 2015
This costs one euro and one dollar in 2015
Periodically collected DN macro panel to discuss short- and long-term trends in Norwegian and international economy.
The five members are:
Name: Kjersti Haugland
Age: 37
Position: Senior Economist DNB Markets
Background: Cand. mag politics, history and economics from the University of Bergen, an economics graduate. NHH, master in economics from the Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona
Name: Asle Wilhelmsen
Age: 40
Position: Chief Economist in the hedge fund Nordkinn Asset Management
Background: Former chief strategist at Swedbank First Securities, macro economist at Norges Bank and the European Central Bank . Economist from NTNU
Name: Erica Blomgren
Age: 31
Position: Chief strategist at SEB Norway
Background: MSc in Stockholm School of Economics. Rentestrag SEB in Stockholm and chief strategist at SEB Norway since 2010
Name: Olav Chen
Age: 37
Position: Senior Portfolio Manager Allocation Group Storebrand Asset Management
Background: MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and an economics graduate of the University
Name: Shakeb Syed
Age: 33
Position: Chief Economist at SpareBank 1 Markets
Background: MBA and Master of Science in Economics and Finance. Earlier macro economist at Handelsbanken Capital Markets
ALL PHOTO: Hampus Lundgren
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