Øystein Olsen in February: “Winter is coming”. Olsen now: the Winter was milder than the … – Aftenposten

Winter is coming, ” said governor Øystein Olsen in their content: in the middle of February of this year.

He used the gloomy statement about the long-standing winter from the popular TV series Game of Thrones as a picture on the prospects for the Norwegian economy.

Now, he is not as hard.

– perhaps There is basis to say that the winter was a little milder than we had feared, he responded to Aftenposten’s questions at the press conference after rentemøtet Thursday.

When told Olsen that the executive board had decided to keep the key rate unchanged at 0.5 per cent.

Touch, nevertheless, not the interest rate, the Highest unemployment rate in 20 years, but economists believe the interest rate is unchanged

Good numbers in the summer

In the course of the summer, there have been figures showing that growth in the economy has picked up.

It looks a bit brighter out. Go there so we now describe it in our forecasts, so isn’t there something gloomy picture for the Norwegian economy. But the uncertainty remains. It is obvious that the Norwegian economy is not finished with the readjustments.

– Are we over the worst?

– It is allowed to hope and maybe believe a bit more in this round than the last time in June.

– the Bottom is in other words reached?

the Bottom of the economy was reached in the end of last year according to Statistics norway’s estimates, and if we look at our projections going forward, ” says Olsen.

Olsen provides gas in the housing market. Financial supervisory authority of norway hangs in the brakes. the

Heading in the same direction

Both the prospect of higher inflation and better momentum in the economy contributes to that Norges Bank goes added in to cancel it announced rentekuttet.

the Bank’s forecast for private setting of interest rates is almost flat for the next couple of years, before it can be one or two interest rate increases in 2019.

the Bank writes that the inflation has been unexpectedly high in the last few months”. Greatly weakened dollar has helped the business to compete better and strengthened profitability, but the price for this is more expensive imports and higher inflation in Norway. Press upward on the base rate is included with the purchase.

Olsen is still holding the door very slightly ajar for rate cuts. He writes in the press release that “it is a bit more likely that the key policy rate is down than up next year”.

But even so the likelihood is small and the executive board notifies a key policy rate “that stays close to 1/2 per cent in the next couple of years”.

Reallønnen will fall in the year, but the growth comes back and gets better each year until 2019. Better lønnstillegg and markedly lower inflation ensures that.”

the Growth in Mainland Norway’s economy is weak this year, but will then be around 2 per cent annually.

Number of jobs will rise by about 1 percent every year from next year, or approximately 27.000 new jobs each year.

The registered unemployment rate is steady at 3 per cent this year and next year, before it drops by around 5,000 to 2019.

large falls in petroleum investment is over from next year. In the annual average they are about the same until 2019.

That the annual average is the key rate a bit lower the next two years before it rises to 0.7 per cent in 2019.

Source: Norges Bank, monetary policy report, 3/16.

mostly rising faster

In its monetary policy reports, Norges Bank is a table which shows the changes in the forecasts from the last time.

Table has several messages, but the most important thing is that Norges Bank is lighter on the budget in the winter than before:

• Prices and wages will rise faster to 2019 than the bank assumed in June, especially this year and next year.
• The economic growth on the mainland will be a little higher in the next few years than assumed in June.
• The registry, unemployment will be markedly lower than the bank predicted before the summer.

SSB predicts lower unemployment and still free loans

the Unemployment rate falls toward the 2019

But the forecast for the unemployment rate is complicated. Norges Bank oppjusterer the unemployment rate to 2019, as measured by Statistics norway’s method. It also includes those who do not sign up with Nav.

the Unemployment rate as measured by STATISTICS norway is much higher than the unemployment rate registered at the Nav-offices.

the Gap between the available measured by the SSB method and the registered available has increased over the last few months. Norges Bank adjusts for this and increases the gap even in their forecasts.

But common to both measures is that the unemployment rate when the top in the year and fall towards 2019.