Handelsbanken: We need more rate cuts – OBI Online

In Norges Bank’s interest rate cuts worried economists Handelsbanken some days that almost no banks lowered their lending rates.

– Eventually, however, began banks to move. But the movements are modest, which may indicate that the effects this time becomes somewhat modest. Some might interpret this as that there is no particular point for Norges Bank to cut further. Although we see it rather as an argument that more needed when the effect is so modest, writes senior economist Knut Anton Mork broker house morning report Tuesday.

Unemployment levels out

Mork shows that NAV figures for registered unemployment Friday before palm Sunday “interesting enough” demonstrated an ever so slight decline after many months of gradual recovery.

– in fact the movement has been fairly close sideways the last two months. We expect continued slow recovery, not least because the labor force shows signs of leveling off. Regional differences remain. Although the upturn thus so far has stalled, we would like to emphasize the vacancy rate is significantly higher than could reasonably be said to be equivalent to full employment.

– And although regional differences remain, it does not that the problems are limited to the oil sector because the other sectors and other regions obviously have not managed to attract the unemployed workforce, continues Mork.

This week’s menu

Handelsbanken think tomorrow LFS figures for January will show a similar tendency. Consensus pulling in the same direction.

Before Thursday’s retail sales for February waiting Mork and his colleagues a fall of 0.5 percent. This is somewhat weaker than consensus, which indicates a fall of 0.3 percent. February drop happens so, in the wake of a 1.4 percent decline from November to December and 0.9 percent increase from December to January.

– Further we remind that we base the estimate on our on statistics for debit card use, which has proven reasonably reliable earlier, the report said.

Before Friday’s February figures for credit growth waiting Handelsbanken unchanged 12-month growth of 5.3 percent, while the consensus suggests further deceleration to 5.1 percent.

– However, we believe that the combination of a base effect and a weak moment may give further drop in the growth rate of credit to households, says Mork.