As expected lot Norges Bank interest rates remain at 0.50 per cent on Thursday’s board.
– This was very expected, and the interesting thing was the wording they would use to explain the choice. Many had probably thought that they would indicate that the crown begins to be a little strong, but we think they came out very neutral today, says the chief economist at Nordea Markets, Kjetil Olsen.
Nordea’s analysts think this is going to mean that Norges Bank is going to relate pretty steady forward.
Sentralbanksjefens dilemma
Nordea-chief economist Olsen points out that the governor Øystein Olsen has one clear dilemma, and this is just the rising exchange rate, on the one hand, and rising rapidly rising house prices on the other.
– This dilemma was not so great when the unemployment rate was still rising. Now that the bottom seems to be reached, it becomes more difficult, ” says Olsen, adding:
– I think, however, Norges Bank is thinking that the better it goes in the Norwegian economy – and the higher the price of oil is – the higher the exchange rate can withstand the we also.
chief economist in DNB, Øystein Dørum, also believes that boligprisveksten is a challenge for Norges Bank.
– It’s obvious that this is a headache for the central bank, and they use a lot of space in the housing market. As they show, it is a good speed in the construction of residential properties which imply higher activity, more jobs, lower unemployment and perhaps also greater pressure on the Norwegian economy, ” says Dørum.
chief economist in DNB markets, Øystein Dørum..
“Non-event”
He believes however that the central bank will await including any tightening of the boliglånsreglene so financial supervisory authority of norway has recommended.
–It is uncertain how much such measures will be able to contribute, but in a lavrenteverden is it better for Norges Bank that targeted interventions addressing the strong boligprisveksten, than that they must raise the interest rate, ” says Dørum.
He mentioned, incidentally, Thursday’s board as a “non-event” in his morgenrapport.
– I don’t understand why they want to themselves so bad that they have these meetings so closely. In such situations, they had managed themselves with preparedness. There is practically zero probability that it’s doing something. The larger interference to get the Norges Bank to deviate from the rentebanen now, and we have not seen, ” says Dørum.
– Little new information since the last
Nor does the chief economist Kari Due-Andresen and the other analysts in Handelsbanken had expected some change on the current board.
It has also been very little new information since the last trough. But the information that has come, has been a little on the weak side in relation to what was said on the rentemøtet in september, ” says Due-Andresen.
According sjeføkonomen indicates, Norges Bank is that there is much in the current situation that can change – such as, for example, the price of oil – up to the next rentemøtet in December.
– If inflation remains weaker, and the krone exchange rate remains higher, however, mean that they will push a rate hike. And the likelihood of it can get a cut can increase a bit, think the Due-Andresen.
chief economist Frank Jullum in Danske Bank have no faith in the renteendring with it first.
– the Decision is really as expected, but we will confirm that Norges Bank believes that the strengthened crown probably due to the stronger oil price. Given that the picture keeps up, we expect very little change also in December, ” says Jullum.
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