It is associated with considerable excitement to the Opec meeting in Vienna on Wednesday, where member states will try to come to a consensus about how produksjonskuttene to be distributed.
It is expected that oil prices may drag themselves all the way up towards $ 60 per barrel if nations agree.
they Should not agree, it may fall down to $ 40.
Follow the price of oil here.
An oil price of 60 dollars may sound alluring, but the chief analyst for commodities at Seb, Bjarne Schieldrop do not think necessarily it is so wise.
If you are loading the market with the front end at 60 dollars, it’s like pouring money into shale oil, he says to E24.
25 new rigs every month
According to sjefanalytikeren will an oil price of 60 dollars just be an immediate reaction on the meeting, but he believes, however, that it can add on the 55 dollars a barrel.
There is also a sharp increase from the current level. Not since the July 2015 oil prices were above 55 dollars per barrel.
But with a oljeprisøkning will also more profittsøkende producers of shale oil speed up the production.
see ALSO: Russia refuses oljekutt
Skiferoljeprosuksjonen, especially in the united STATES, has been significantly scaled back in conjunction with oljeprisfallet since the summer of 2014. Supplement with skiferoljen was among the reasons that the amount of oil in the market exceeded demand, and got the prices to plunge.
BAD IDEA: Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst at Seb believe Opec will agree, but say that it is not necessarily good.
– With 48 dollars in cuts in brent as we have 25 rigs each month since the start of June. 25 rigs, it is the same as the 250.000 barrels of additional 15 months later. The last eight weeks we have received 50 new drilling rigs in the united STATES, there are a half a million barrels.
A half million barrels is the same as Opec would like, that the countries outside Opec will cut.
Also head of The international energy agency (IEA) Fatih Birol said earlier this week that a price increase may be short-lived, precisely because of the increase in shale oil.
– Fires up the oil market with a produksjonskutt you get maybe a price of 55 dollars per barrel for the first half of the year, but so is all of this blown away a blåmandag in the second half of the year because it enables for much skiferproduksjon, he warns.
Ironically enough – is the price high enough, it can trigger more skiferproduksjon, which in turn increases the amount of oil in the market, which in turn get the price down again.
“We think Opec is going to cut, and we don’t think it is a good idea,” says Schieldrop
In the middle of november it came out that the us government has made the largest skiferoljefunnet ever.
Need fewer rigs
According to Schieldrop, it is a delicate balancing act, but it is difficult to say exactly where the price of oil should be not to enable too much skiferproduksjon.
What we know is that at 48 dollars so we get 25 new rigs every month, it is what empirien from this year says. It is not so much in a month, but it is very much when it is every month.
He also makes a point that the united STATES with fewer rigs today can produce just as effectively as a few years ago.
Oljespekulantenes bets can warn suddenly oljeprishopp
It was 1200 rigs in 2013 and 2014, but they were much less effective, so if you have 650 rigs so they will be just as effective as the 1200 rigs a few years ago.
– Vinninga up in spinninga
According to the oljeanalytiker in Nordea, Thina Saltvedt is part of the reason for the rapid increase in the rigs that these are projects that were put on ice earlier in the year when the oil price was at its lowest.
– There are some projects that have already been drilled, but not put into production. These fields are not so expensive to put in the time, so when was it enough that the price of oil reached $ 45 for that they could start production.
But to start on new projects so must be a bit up in price, ” says Saltvedt.
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She agrees with Schieldrop in that it can be a proper “blåmandag” with a price between 55 and 60 dollars a barrel, but says the biggest fear is that the investments in the oil industry continue to fall.
The IEA predicts full throttle – but not in Norway
– It will put a lid on the price of oil – until they reach the point where they are unable to compensate for the fall in investments. Until there comes some effect of the cuts in other places in the world will vinninga go up in spinninga, ” says Saltvedt.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khaled al-Falih said at a conference earlier this fall that the Saudi Arabia fears for low investments.
the WORLD’s most POWERFUL: Saudi Arabia’s energy minister is worried about the low investment, and fear skvis in the market in about three-four years whether or not they take up.
Fresco figures show that the Norwegian oljebransjens investments have dropped by as much as 74 billion in three years, but also in other parts of the world, investment has fallen.
– the Risk if the price stays at the current level out to 2017 is that even more investment will be put on hold.
– Then you can get a skvis in the market in 2019 and 2020. When will oil prices rise fast and a lot because you’re not able to initiate projects quickly enough, and there is not enough shale to cover the lost in other places, ” says Saltvedt.
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