While it goes in mulled wine and austrian food options on the outside of the large building in the middle of the city’s finanskvartal, sitting oljetoppene in the mighty oljekartellet and negotiate the strategy forward. A decision that has consequences for the entire world economy, and especially for the oil-producing countries such as Norway.
the Cartel meets once in six months.
Meeting: Opec countries meet in Vienna to 30. november.
Founded: the Organization of oil-exporting countries (Opec) was founded by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela in 1960.
Members: Opec has today, 13 member states. The other members are: The united arab emirates, Qatar, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, Indonesia, Ecuador and Angola.
Original goal: To regulate the production of oil within between member states in order to control the price level of oil.
Cut in production until October 2015
The cartel decides on the meeting, tend to be of great importance for where the oil price settles in the times to come. Opec members, with the biggest producer Saudi Arabia in the lead, has until november 2014 regulated the oil price through cuts in output.
But at the meeting two years ago changed the Saudi Arabia strategy, and would rather fight for market share with America’s growing skiferoljeprodusenter. It has led to the sharp fall in oil prices.
Now is a lot of play again
Now, the states have again begun to talk about cutting production again. One of the reasons is that the Opec countries ‘ own statsbudsjetter has shrunk dramatically, in step with oil prices.
Torbjørn Kjus of DnB Markets says that he has faith that it ends up with a produksjonskutt this time.
– the Reason is that there is so much at stake for the oil price and thus for the economy to all the oil-exporting countries, ” he says to Stavanger Aftenblad.
– We believe utfallsrommet of oil prices leading up to christmas are on the whole 20 per barrel, depending on what Opec will agree next week.
Kjus believes that if the cartel manages to agree on a cut of between 1.0 and 1.5 million barrels per day, the price of a barrel of north Sea oil up to 60 dollars for christmas.
The last few weeks, the price of a barrel of north Sea oil is located on the right under 50 dollars.
– If, however, ends without any agreement on a produksjonsbegrensende agreement, we believe that oil prices may fall to $ 40 per barrel before the new year. This large utfallsrommet for oil prices, we believe most of the countries in the cartel are aware of.
Statoil: – You need to put things in perspective
chief economist in Statoil, Eirik Wærness, says that any rise in prices will be positive for the Norwegian continental shelf in the short term. And the fact that Opec is willing to contribute to the recovery of oil prices is a positive signal, he believes.
But one must put these things in perspective. Opec currently produces 1/3 of the world’s oil. The world market of oil is 96 million barrels per day. A consensus among Opec members may revolve around a cut of around 500.000 barrels per day, or around 0.5 per cent of total oil production. The demand is estimated to grow by 1 million barrels per year up to 2020. A kvotereduksjon is therefore eaten up in the course of half a year, ” says Wærness.
He adds that the short-term effect of an increased oil price is that it can stimulate more skiferoljeproduksjon in the united STATES.
– It will take between 9 and 12 months before they manage to react, but then you get growth in the market. And then go vinningen up in the thrill, ” says Wærness.
Investeringskutt
In its recent World Energy Investment report, published in september, wrote the international energy agency (IEA) that the cost-cutting in the industry has led to a global cut of over 300 billion dollars, or around 2570 billion, in investments.
It’s going to get more important in the future, according to Wærness.
– If we neglect to invest in new wells in new fields, we will lose 3-5 million barrels per day. We must therefore keep pace with the increase in demand and continue to invest. Now, there are around 500 million barrels of oil in stock. But even if these bearings falls, it may take time before it shuts out in the market, ” he says.
– It is important to avoid for the industry and for Norway is that time critical projects are left. If you expose them you can not take them out. The prerequisite is of course that they must be profitable.
Higher rates
Torbjørn Kjus at DnB Markets believe that if the Opec will agree on cuts in production, will oil prices come up in 65 dollars per barrel in 2017.
– If the cartel fails to agree on cuts we will most likely revise down this prisestimatet quite significant.
Wærness says that he is absolutely sure that the prices are going up in the 60 dollars per barrel again.
But no one knows when this may come to pass. The price is now is not sustainable, even if the cost level has come a long way down. But we expect that the balance in the market will be restored relatively quickly. We can not exclude that the price of oil goes down first, but it will be up.
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