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Increased faith in Opec-cuts lifted both oil prices and Oslo stock Exchange.
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oil prices rose Monday on increased faith in the market that Opec manages to come to a consensus about a produksjonskuttavtale at the meeting in Vienna next week. Statoil, Aker, BP and DNO rises on the Oslo stock Exchange.
the Prices of both Brent and WTI oil was up about two dollars per barrel compared with the level when the Oslo stock Exchange closed Friday.
Oljeministerne in both Opecs second and third most-producing countries, Iran and Iraq, at the weekend were out in the media with statements that there is good probability that oljekartellet implementation of the memorandum of understanding from september, which involves limiting oil production to be between 32,5 and 33,0 million barrels per day. The international energy agency (IEA) estimates that Opec today produces about 33,8 million barrels per day.
-It is always Saudi Arabia, which decides, with the help from The united arab emirates and Kuwait. So it gets cut. Saudi cannot withstand oil prices at $ 45 the barrel. The question is really whether it gets down to closer to 32.5 million barrels per day, or 33,0 million barrels, says Pareto Securities’ oljeanalytiker Trond Omdal, who has employment background from the oil industry in the middle East.
the Pareto assumption that Opec is going to reduce down to 33,0 million barrels per day, and that the cuts was as follows:
*Saudi Arabia: up to 500.000 barrels per day
*united arab emirates: up to 200,000 barrels per day
*Kuwait up to 200,000 barrels per day
*Qatar: between 50,000 and 100,000 barrels per day
Pareto waiting so that the other Opec countries, including Iraq and Iran, will freeze produksjonsnivåene.
That the Saudi, emirati and Kuwait which must take the responsibility and cut will neither be a surprise or be something new. According to Him, the three countries, which together are often referred to as “core Opec”, stood for about 80-90 per cent of the produksjonskuttene Opec has done historically.
Paretos Omdal get support for råvareanalysesjef Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB.
“We expect that the Opec cuts to the level they have signaled, even though they don’t really need to cut to more than that the production is 33.5 new million barrels per day,” he says to TDN Finans.
Oljeanalytiker Torbjørn Kjus of DNB Markets is not just expectant to it, Opec can manage to achieve.
-We expect that there will be agreement on a cut. But we do not expect the particular fulfillment of the promise of cuts other than from Saudi, the united arab emirates and Kuwait. We have baked in a net cut of 300,000 barrels per day, because we at the same time adds up to slightly higher production from Libya and Nigeria, ” says Kjus to TDN Finans.
By the Opec cuts await DNB-Kjus, an oil price of 55 dollars within the christmas. SEB-Schieldrop waiting also 55 dollar by christmas, while Omdal believe in the 55-60 dollar by christmas.
When it comes to the risk that there will be something of an agreement, see Him first and foremost for themselves that it is Iran that has the potential to stick the sticks in the wheels.
The one risk is that Iran chooses to humiliate Saudi by to put a stop to the agreement, because maktforholdet the most recent year, after atomavtalen came in the box, already have moved significantly in the iranernes favor, says Omdal. At the same time he stresses that this probably is not a very realistic scenario, not least because Iran’s military partner in Syria, Russia is likely to put pressure on Iran to come to an agreement.
It was the sector that pulled up the Oslo stock Exchange on Monday. Statoil rose 3.6 per cent, Aker BP was up 3.6 per cent and DNO rose 2.6 per cent. Oljeserviceindeksen rose 1.7 per cent.
the main index on the Oslo stock Exchange ended up 0,88 percent to 653,38 points, traded for 2.620 million.
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