Let it be said first: this is not the Iea’s hovedscenario.
So the global outlook is today, predicts The international energy agency that the number of electric cars will increase to 30 million by 2025 and 150 million by 2040.
There are more than a hundredobling of the size of today’s electric vehicle fleet of 1.3 million, according to the IEA. This would reduce global oil demand by 1.3 million barrels per day compared with what it would otherwise have been, says the energy agency.
If the world, however, follows the wording of last year’s treaty on climate change from Paris, so will a majority of the cars had to be electric in 2040.
It writes the Iea in its World Energy Outlook report, which will be presented on Wednesday.
In the annual report adds energy agency forward estimates about the world’s energy needs. This year’s report also looked at what it takes to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees measured at around level, an intensification of the former togradersmålet.
the Agency wrote little about evs in the corresponding report for one year ago, and stated then that the sales for the most part had been disappointing, except in Norway.
Explosive growth
Just to be able to achieve the former klimamålet to limit warming to the two degree warming, so must the number of electric cars rise to the mangedobbelte, says the IEA.
GROWTH: To see The international energy agency for the growth in elbilmarkedet between 2015 and 2040 in its hovedscenario. But if the world should now klimamålene in the Paris agreement there must be far more electric cars, think the IEA.
In the agency’s 450 scenario, which assumes a temperature increase of two degrees, increases elbilflåten to 715 million, a third of the global total fleet, in 2040.
Although it would be very demanding, and it is therefore not the most likely scenario, as it looks today, according to the IEA. In 2015 there were only 1.3 million electric cars on the roads globally, a doubling from the year before.
– If these measures, including more stringent fuel economy, utslippsreguleringer and economic incentives are stronger and more widely spread, so they are in the 450 scenario, the effect will be that there will be 715 million electric cars on the roads in 2040, which displaces six million barrels per day in oil demand, writes IEA.
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Current global oil demand is at around 97 million barrels per day.
– Too little ambitious
– I’m more optimistic and believe that the IEA once again underestimate how fast this can get to go, ” says Bellona foundation leader Frederic Hauge to E24.
We see that the major constraint now is in the process of being the production of batteries. It is an industry that can be scaled up, and batterikostnadene fall, ” he says.
Also, Norwegian Elbilforening believe that the Iea’s hovedscenario not go far enough, because it happens a quickly teknologiskifte, and the cost to produce electric vehicles falls dramatically. And the last year, the car manufacturers started to position themselves for growth, believes the association.
-150 million electric cars by 2040 is too little ambitious. What they did not take with then, is that there will be a paradigm shift. It is difficult to calculate, ” says Christina Dwell in the Norwegian Elbilforening to E24.
– the Cost of producing these cars only goes down, and even out in the 2020′s will these cars be cheaper than bensinbiler and have similar range. At one point it will just say pang, ” says Bu.
LESS OIL: how To see the IEA for themselves that electric vehicles and more efficient cars reduces the demand for oil, while the shipping, the number of heavy transport trucks, aerospace and petro-chemical pulling in the other direction, according to the World Energy Outlook 2016.
Challenging goal
For the first time, the IEA also calculated what it will require to reach the most ambitious goal: to limit warming to well below two degrees, and try to get down to 1,5 degrees. This was embodied in the klimaavtalen in Paris, which entered into force on 4. november of this year.
in Order to limit warming to “well below two degrees” is required probably 1.5 billion electric cars on the roads in 2040, or three-quarters of the global passasjerbilparken, says the IEA. When would global oil production will fall to 63 million barrels per day.
Christina Dwell in elbilforeningen think that it will be sold very few or no fossilbiler in 2040, and says that both car manufacturers and governments are now trying to learn from Norway.
– Only the last week we have helped several european countries where the bureaucracy looking at the local benefits in Norway in terms of how they should develop similar incentives, ” says Bu.
If the world is to achieve the most ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees it will require that nearly all cars are electric, and that almost all of the grip that can be imagined, is being implemented in order to cut global greenhouse gas emissions, says the IEA.
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2.2 billion electric cars
You would get a long piece towards the 1.5-degree goal if you electrified all the cars and vans, which would require around 2.2 billion electric vehicles were on the roads in 2040, and that no cars were fossildrevne, says the IEA.
With such a development would oil production globally could fall to 40 million barrels per day in 2040, well below half of today’s level, says the organization.
But such a massive reorganization is not hovedscenariet in the report. The IEA believes is most likely, is that the world will increase consumption of oil to 103 million barrels of oil per day in 2040, more than six per cent more than in the day.
And then achieves the world probably not klimamålene it was agreed in Paris.
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