Is there a consensus on the cut of the formal meeting Wednesday, and the cut overall is large, we can not rule out an oil price that moves up toward 60 dollars a barrel within the year-end, summarizes Nordea Markets on Monday.
– If OPEC cannot agree, looks we don’t ignore the fact that oil prices fall back down toward $ 40 per barrel. Much will therefore be made on Wednesday, said the report.
DNB Markets’ oljeanalytiker Torbjørn Kjus is of the same opinion.
– We believe utfallsrommet of oil prices until christmas are on the whole 20 per barrel, depending on what OPEC will agree on, he says to Stavanger Aftenblad.
Kjus think it ends with produksjonskutt this time, because there is so much at stake for the oil price and the economy in oil-producing countries.
It comes in the highest degree also for a hard-tested Norwegian oljenæring, which has two difficult years behind him.
the End of OPEC?
the Members of the OPEC accounts for about a third of the global oil production, and kartellets the opportunity to affect the price of oil is therefore initially limited.
The French energianalytikeren Alexandre Andlauer believes it can have serious consequences for OPEC, if the organization are unable to agree on a kuttavtale.
– It can mean the end for OPEC, ” he says to the news agency AFP.
In september, the 14 OPEC countries, in principle, agreed to cut oil production to 32,5-33,0 million barrels per day. It means in this case a cut of between 600.000 and 1.1 million barrels per day.
the OPEC nations ‘ hope is that such cuts will reduce the heavy surplus of oil on the market and thus send oil prices up from the current level of barely 50 per barrel.
oil prices more than halved since the peak level of 115 dollars a barrel in the summer of 2014.
two year strategy
Much of the reason for the prissvikten was the strategy of Saudi-Arabia, which is influential in OPEC to maintain the production level in order to crack the american skiferoljeindustrien.
If OPEC now agree on the cuts, it will in practice involve a reversal of this strategy, writes AFP.
But it remains to be seen if the OPEC countries in that all can agree on an arrangement, and how it would be seeing out.
position in warring Libya has already warned that the country will not be in a produksjonskutt. Iran has warned that the country is not going to cut production until it is back at the same level as before the sanctions against the country were introduced.
ahead of the meeting has OPEC also addressed to non-members, first and foremost Russia, to get them to cut production.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has said last week that the country could “freeze the output”, but would not love the cut. (©NTB)
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