Value creation on the Norwegian mainland, as measured by the gross domestic product (gdp) increased by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter, according to Statistics norway.
Analysts had expected that GDP growth in the third quarter would be 0.3 per cent, while the Norges Bank had expected growth of 0.4 per cent.
Norwegian fastlandsøkonomi stronger than expected
despite weaker growth than in the previous quarter, and figures showing weaker industrial production in the third quarter than a year ago: the Norwegian economy still looks to be on the mend compared to last year.
So far this year, namely the economy continued to grow, after approximately zero quarterly growth in the last half of last year.
It can speak for that Norges Bank continues to keep interest rates unchanged at the next board, among other things, to avoid to reinforce the growth in debt and house prices.
will increase
There are bright spots in the numbers, even though they may be temporary:
gross Investments in fixed capital, i.e. the procurement of everything from building and construction to the machines and homes, increased by 2.6 per cent in the third quarter, after mostly to have fallen in the last two years, according to Statistics Norway.
– This is the positive numbers for the business community. It means that we have had growth in the whole year, against virtually zero-growth in the second half of last year, ” says Norwegian trade and industry minister Monica Mæland (H) in a comment.
Developments in oil-related industries weigh still in the labour market. We are not quite over the hump. Employment grew by about 1500 people in 3. quarter of 2016 after a weak development for a long time. Compared with 3. last year there were 4000 fewer employees, says Mæland.
– There is a gratifying increase in the food industry and commodity-based industry. It is also good that the growth in the reiselivsområdet and fish farming has been good.
Petroleumsinvesteringene fell by only 0.6 per cent from the quarter before, and shows signs of levelling out after a significant drop the past few years. DNB Markets had expected a fall in petroleumsinvesteringene of 1.5 per cent.
It is very a lot of coincidences in these numbers from quarter to quarter. But petroleum investment fall less, and we expect also in the future, ” says chief analyst Erik Bruce at Nordea Markets to E24.
– Weak positive
In the mainland economy increased investments by 3.4 per cent in the third quarter, partly because of the still high boliginvesteringer and markedly higher investments in electricity supply.
What we can say certainly is that housing investment goes to heaven, but it is difficult to say that there has been some restructuring in the mainland economy otherwise. For the investments in the mainland economy, the picture is weak positive, ” says Bruce.
The public also contributed significantly, with an increase in its investments of 7.5 percent in the third quarter, but this was largely due to delivery of two new jet fighters from Lockheed Martin.
In the industry continues investments, down from the previous quarter, with a fall of 1.3 per cent in the third quarter.
– Weak rebound
senior economist Kyrre Aamdal in DNB says to E24 that the numbers indicate that the recovery in the Norwegian economy will be weaker than what both the Norges Bank, STATISTICS norway and the financial supervisory authority of norway has added to the reason.
– Overall, we see that these numbers substantiate that the decline in the economy has stopped, but the boom is weak, and weaker than Norges Bank has assumed. So this is a relationship which ends up in the scales for the rate cuts, ” says Aamdal.
He believes however that the central bank puts so much emphasis on developments in the housing market, låneetterspørselen and the labour market that a rate cuts still will fail on the next trough in December.
the Projections for growth in the mainland economy fluctuates a lot from quarter to quarter, and are often revised up or down afterwards. It must therefore be clear and permanent changes to that Norges Bank will change its renteutsikter.
Build a lot
There is still growth in the construction industry, from an already high level, and there was good growth in fish farming.
Decrease in energy generation dampened growth in the third quarter, according to Statistics Norway.
In parts of the oil-related industry, there is still a decline. This contributed to a fall in the product in manufacturing, mining and quarrying 1.4 percent in the third quarter.
It was also the case in services related to the oil industry, and slow growth in most service industries.
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the Growth in household consumption was weak in the third quarter, as in the previous quarter. Housing investment, however, increased by three percent, after a steady climb since 2014.
– Not marked packs
DNB Markets hit the target with his estimate of advance of a growth of just 0.2 per cent in the third quarter. The bank believes there are several reasons for that growth falls back from the second quarter.
– In the previous quarter we had a quite strong development from investments in the tjenestesektorer, and now has this growth gone a little back, ” says Aamdal.
the Industry has also had a weaker development, and the decline in services associated with petroleumsutvinning continues, ” says seniorøkonomen.
– the Latter had a surprisingly strong growth in the second quarter, but now that growth has gone back it seems that this was quite random, ” says Aamdal.
– This does not suggest any marked turnaround in the economy.
Weak higher employment
Employment rose to 1,500 people in the quarter, or 0.1 per cent, after the weak trend over several quarters.
at the same time as Statistics norway (SSB) presents the new GDP figures for the third quarter, held the GDP for the second quarter unchanged at 0.4 per cent.
the Growth in the first quarter was 0.3 per cent, after the zero-growth in the second half of 2015.
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