Oljeprisrush on Opec-optimism – Today’s Business

Opec

Oljegiganter dealer about the important oljeavtale. – This looks very promising, ” says oljeanalytiker Torbjørn Kjus of DNB. – Klin impossible!, says analysis supervisor Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB.

Published: 30.11.2016 — 12:48 Updated: 30.11.2016 — 12:48

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Oljeministrene in oljekartellet Opec are now in negotiations to cut its total oil production in Austria’s capital Vienna.

In advance of the meeting was an optimistic number oljeministre who met the press, and sent oil prices up to 50,5 per barrel just before the clock 12.30 Wednesday, an increase of over three dollars a barrel.

If this doesn’t work hangs it on personal differences or political factors, ” says oljeanalytiker Torbjørn Kjus in the investment firm DNB Markets. He has been waiting in advance that the ministers in oljekartellet in the day to come to an agreement about an agreement.

Oljeanalytiker Torbjørn Kjus and råvaresjef Nils Fredrik Hvatum is excited ahead of the Opec meeting on Wednesday morning. Here pictured on the råvaredesken in DNB Markets. Photo: Fredrik Bjerknes

– Promise

Oljekartellet, with Saudi Arabia and Iran in the tip, has for months negotiated for an agreement to cut kartellets total oil production to push oil prices up and reduce the profit in the market. The optimistic statements sent oil prices up over 50 dollars a barrel, from just over 47 per barrel before eight o’clock on Wednesday morning.

This looks very promising, ” says Kjus, after having seen the oil price jump over two dollars a barrel the statements from the ministers. He particularly points out two statements that helped to push up oil prices, respectively, oljeministrene, respectively, Iran and Iraq.

Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi stated to Bloomberg that there will be agreement on a cut, and said there was “unanimous agreement in the Opec”. Iran’s oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on his page that he was an optimist and that Russia, which are not Opec members, stands ready to cut its oil production in cooperation with oljekartellet.

Internal disagreements

Opec must in the first instance, agree on how the benefits their cut before oljekartellet agree on how oil producers outside Opec, with Russia in the lead, will cut their production. In particular, it has been friction between Saudi Arabia, which is considered Opecs most influential member states, and Iran about how the cuts will be distributed and whether or not Iran at all to cut.

It is these internal disagreements that do that råvareanalysesjef Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB does not believe in any kuttavtale.

last night there was no solution for Iran, and Saudi Arabia seemed to stand firmly on their demands that Iran can’t drop away from the cut or produksjonstak. The situation of Iraq was not resolved, and there was strong disagreement among the member states, ” says Schieldrop to DN.

Bjarne Schieldrop, analysis supervisor for raw materials in the SEB. Photo: Carina Johansen

In addition to Iran and Saudi Arabia conflict, he refers to Iraq’s disagreement with Opec about how much the country itself produces. Iraq believes they will cut their production from a level higher than Opec itself estimates.

– If they haven’t fixed it in six months, why would they do it now on this relatively short meeting?, ask Schielrop, and answers his own question:

To solve this floken in a 14-mannsorkester is klin impossible! They may communicate something that looks like a cut, but it is really most in order to save face. They still want to appear as a unified group that has influence in media, politics and the market, ” he says.