Greece is made for good weather. The sun is Greece.
To some extent it is this election Sunday revolves. The right to enjoy the carefree moments in the middle of everyday toil.
Thursday, just before Governor Mario Draghi announced that the European Central Bank, ECB, will begin to print money, I ate lunch under the Acropolis. Café table was moved out onto the sidewalk. It was one of those days when the sun in Greece can make a simple lunch, even in January, to a small party while.
But half of the tables were empty. And half of the guests were foreigners.
– They have destroyed the life we have always lived, says a Greek acquaintance of mine, who sits better in it than most.
– People most are not starving, but they struggle. Pensioners on half board breadwinner in some cases unemployed children and grandchildren.
– I dare not often call friends to suggest that we are going out and take us a snack. For I know that they are embarrassed and lying to drop to say that they can not afford.
The middle class rebel
The new aspect of this choice seems to be that a large part of the middle class revolt against the right party New Democracy and Prime Minister Antonis Samaras.
If the radical opposition party Syriza becomes the largest party, as almost everyone believes, it is primarily because people will vote against the old, state-bearing portions and the corrupt political elite that has enriched itself for decades – and simultaneously has been running the country in the trench.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has in recent days reminded Greeks about that they must implement the reforms that are preconditions for crisis loans Greece has received. Thursday followed Draghi up. ECB will not buy Greek government bonds before the country’s leaders have shown that they will stick to agreements with the EU and IMF.
The question that arises in Greece, and that arouses resonated in other southern European countries, is whether it is possible to get elected politicians who can meet the requirements of Merkel and the ECB.
In an hour long campaign appeal as troll bantering audience at Omonia Square Thursday produced Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the radical opposition party Syriza itself, like Greece last hope. But it can be equally correct to say that among Greek politkere he is now the EU’s last hope.
Who’s to blame?
In retrospect almost complete consensus that Greece should not have been released into the monetary union in 2002.
– We were, and really a developing country, and everyone knew it. It will take a generation to modernize the country, says a pensioner in the 1970s lived in Stockholm.
But Greek politicians habit of living on borrowed money did not start ii 2002.
When Andreas Papandreou became prime minister in 1981 he introduced social reforms, took over private companies that went bad, and rewarded their fans with new positions – much of it with borrowed money.
Yet after 2002 that borrowing exploded.
Greece got access to an almost unlimited lending market with much lower interest rates than before – and helped himself.
The key was that the banks in Europe were told that they could lend unlimited money also states in southern Europe without setting aside reserves.
As also experts in the IMF has pointed out, perceived banks this that there existed an informal, common EU guarantee against loss.
The interest rate for loans to private shipped with down.
– And look what we bought on credit, says a pensioner I’ll buy you lunch.
German cars and products from Siemens. And the state bought German submarines with money borrowed from Germany.
So he adds, bitterly:
– There was no warning from Northern Europe.
When Depression came
Greece lived through until 2009 one loan financed boom. Wages took off. Norway. Competitiveness abroad was undermined.
Without its own currency that could be written down in value, and without that Northern Europe was willing to give their wages a boost to the Greek in wages down again.
Therefore, it is sadly mistaken to say that mass unemployment in Greece is accident. It is rather an enforcement action, a means to bring down costs. How would it be possible for the Greeks to keep the euro – or avoid being evicted.
The drug has so far worked, but also triggered the deepest and longest depression any Western country has experienced since the 1930s.
Many potential export companies failed, when the domestic market disappeared. And as many as 300,000 small family businesses should have gotten the hook on the door.
The flavors of confiscation
It is therefore not surprising that tax revenues have been disappointing low even though tax rates have increased. And the debt burden has risen sharply.
It is attempted now offset through a new grip: A fairly heavy property taxes, without bottom deduction, also paid by those who have little or no income – even if they have high debt.
A small oddity: The combination of higher tax rates and the fall in production and revenues allow Greece according to the latest present statistics from 2013 now has a slightly higher tax level, as a share of GDP, than the average for the euro area.
Many self-employed – as it is more in Greece than in most countries – now seem to vote for Syriza. Others go to the neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn, as opposed to Syriza promises struggle against the euro.
It is this rebellion that makes Prime Minister Antonis Samaras of New Democracy last fall sat on its hind legs in negotiations with the EU and IMF on new reforms and new cuts.
But he had enough of a reason. The reforms in the corrupt economic system will affect the political power elite and their benefactors, who have lived by this system.
New confrontation with the EU
Now Alexis Tsipras become the first prime minister in the eurozone which runs in an open confrontation with Berlin and Brussels.
But government in countries with abysmal debt have little economic freedom.
Therefore, it can go with Tsipras, as it went Antonis Samaras and several other former opposition politicians in the EU. In government position he may also end up continuing the policies that he has been campaigning against.
But if when Tsipras discarded in the next election – as it now seems to happen with Samaras – who will take?
Among parties of any size it is, apart from Syriza, now soon only the Communist Party and Golden Dawn who have not tried in the government offices. And both parties are intransigent opponents euro.
Alexis Tsipras scares many. He says so far no, to the current agreements with the EU samid which he requires easing debt.
But he is perhaps the best the EU can hope for if Greece should remain a euro country.
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