And we who thought that the Oslo market was expensive – Hegnar Online

“In the chinese metropolis Shenzhen have house prices risen by 75 per cent since the beginning of 2015. A new eiendomsboble is about to grow,” writes Ole Andre Kjennerud, DNB Markets in recent morgenrapport.

He believes the risk of a housing bubble in China has increased markedly over the past year. In several cities have house prices risen sharply and far more than wages and income.

“Not sustainable”

“Development is not sustainable. Several local authorities have begun to tighten in on the regulations in order to curb demand, until now without success. This is not the first time that we have been uneasy for the housing market in China”, writes Kjennerud in the report.

He points out that in contrast to earlier is now a large proportion of the boligkjøpene gjeldsfinansiert, and households account for an increasingly larger proportion of the total gjeldsøkningen.

75 per cent increase

on average, prices have this year been on 11.600 yuan, just over a third of the average disposable income.

“For a household with two income indicates that a residence of 100 square meters (which is the average dwelling size) costs around 17 times årsinntekten. It is high,” writes Kjennerud.

In some cities the numbers are significantly worse. In the big city of Shenzhen, which is wall-in-wall with hong Kong, house prices according to the economist risen by 75 per cent since the beginning of 2015. In august, the average kvadratmeterpris up in 54.500 yuan, which with the current exchange rate equivalent to approximately 65.000 million, three times as high as in the neighboring city of Guangzhou.

“It is difficult to get on the good inntektstall from Shenzhen, but if we use the official figures from 2013 and adding an annual wage growth of around 8 percent, we end up with that house prices have increased to around 28 times the disposable household income. And we who thought that the Oslo market was expensive, writes the economist.

Shenzhen is however not a unique case. Of the 100 cities that the China Index Academy included, 11 had an increase in house prices of 30 per cent or more in the last eighteen months. The vast majority are in the areas around Shanghai or Shenzhen.