Macroeconomics
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The monthly jobbrapporten from the u.s. government shows that it was created 161.000 new jobs outside agriculture in October.
It was expected a growth in employment of 173.000 people, according to estimates collected by Bloomberg News.
It was more than convincing enough. Now was jobbveksten just in October, slightly lower than expected. It weighed up by positive revisions backwards, ” says senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov, Handelsbanken Capital Markets.
Last month’s numbers were revised to an increase of 191.000 people, from an originally reported growth at 153.000.
Overall, the growth in employment in august and september increased by some 44,000 new jobs.
the unemployment rate was at 4.9 percent in October. It was expected a ledighetsrate of 4.9 per cent. Last month was the unemployment rate at five per cent.
Jobbrapporten also shows that the average hourly wage increased by 0.4 percent during October, compared to 0.3 per cent the month before. It was expected a growth in timelønningene at 0.3 per cent.
Jobbrapporten from the u.s. government contains a comprehensive overview of the situation in the u.s. labor market.
the Report is based on two separate surveys.
the unemployment rate is calculated from a survey that each month is made among the 60.000 households.
Changes in employment outside of agriculture is calculated from the numbers in a study that is being done on the 557.000 jobs.
Out from the bedriftsundersøkelsen are also calculated the average number of hours worked in a work week. According to Bloomberg News, this will be seen as a leading indicator for employment, since employers tend to increase the working week before new persons are hired or reduce the prior to people possibly being terminated.
Bedriftsundersøkelsen also form the statistics for the changes in the average timelønninger. According to Bloomberg News is the changes in the timelønninger an important indicator to determine whether there are signs of inflationary pressures
Authorities jobbrapport are normally published on the first Friday of the month.
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In an overall positive report draws Hov until just the development in wage growth as the most positive contribution.
– There is now a clear rising trend in wage growth in the united STATES. It suggests that it tightens up more in the labour market and that inflation then gradually will begin to rise up towards the target again, ” says Hov.
Pending rate hike
In connection with the rentemøtet earlier this week notified the us central bank the Federal Reserve that the arguments for a rate hike has been further strengthened in the last period, but that it chooses to wait for some further evidence that the central bank’s goal is about to be reached.
the central Bank has a dual mandate for rentesettingen: Maximum employment and stable inflation.
the Development in the labour market is therefore very central for renteutviklingen in the world’s largest economy. Except for two cases, the monthly growth in employment remained over 150.000 since the beginning of 2014. In the same period, the unemployment rate dropped about two percentage points.
In the market priced it to reach close to 70 percent probability that the central bank put up the interest rate on the next rentemøtet in December.
Waiting on the outcome of the presidential election
Hov, Handelsbanken believes that the lot is now located to the right for a rate hike.
– If we steer clear of the unfavorable outcomes so it goes very clearly in the direction of the rate increase in December. It has the Fed been very clear on. The numbers that came today is more than compelling enough that it will be able to follow the plan, ” says Hov.
the Results of the presidential election on Tuesday, 8. november can, however, create uncertainty about the central bank’s plans for further renteutviklingen.
I think the reason that it does not want to be even more explicit is that it wants to see the result of the election to a week. The choice has been very much more exciting than the market have taken account of and that is really where the market’s attention has been directed in the last days, says Hov.
senior economist Knut A. Magnussen at DNB Markets also believe it is right for an interest rate increase.
– We believe that today’s numbers definitely are strong enough that the interest rate should be set up. Especially the increase in wage growth, which remains moderate, this suggests that interest rates should be raised. The growth in the number of jobs is somewhat lower than what has been the average the last few years, but still high enough to provide additional pressure in the labor market going forward, writes Aamdal
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