After last week’s Opec agreement on produksjonskutt of 1.2 million barrels a day, dishes, organization, attention to other oil producers.
In Vienna the Saturday meetings, the Opec oil-producing countries that are not members of the cartel. Where hope Opec to get countries to commit to cut 600,000 barrels a day. It is expected that Russia will take half of the kuttbyrden.
chief analyst for commodities Bjarne Schieldrop at Seb expect that it presented a fairly detailed agreement on how it should be cut.
– They are going to present a fairly credible document, he says to E24, but emphasises at the same time:
– There are few who take all of this for good fish. It is taken with a pinch of salt, and people will adjust a little bit out from what they think the countries will be cut.
Uncertainty about whether Russia
It is expected that the nine countries that are not Opec members, are participating in the meeting: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Mexico, Russia, Sudan, South Sudan, Bahrain and Malaysia. Also Bolivia can come to participate, says one Opec source to Reuters.
so Far, there is only Russia and Oman, which has promised to cut production.
– There are many utydeligheter in these promises. Russia says 300,000 barrels, but from what level? How will it happen? So they say that they can’t be cut with a time, but that it should happen gradually, ” says Schieldrop.
He points to the fact that Russia might not want to cut especially in the year’s first three months because of the cold weather in Siberia, which makes that the oil in the pipe thickens if the oil flow is reduced.
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Russia has promised to cut three times previously, without that they have been implemented, so the confidence is not so high, ” he says.
But on the other hand, Russia has good speed with increasing production. So that they say that they intend to cut, gives the assurance that they are not bombarding the market with oil. And it is the most important thing for Opec.
The Russian production was 11,21 million barrels a day in november, the highest level since Soviet times.
Think of the price spikes
Schieldrop waiting nor that Opec will be able to cut as much as they want.
– There is a risk that Opec will produce between 34 and 34.5 million barrels of day in the first half of the year. Few think they will clear the target of 32,5. There are of course a little cheating, ” he says, and stresses that it is possible production will increase slightly in Nigeria and Libya.
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But you have still removed a lot of nedsiderisikoen because Russia not only can run on, and Opec does not increase production in the first half of the year.
Oljeanalytikeren believe in a deal that will send the prices somewhat upward, already in the next week. Monday this week was the set currently årsbeste on nordsjøolje (Brent spot) on 55,25 per barrel.
” I think at the higher rates through December than it. The entire market is in a process to take this all in, and it is often that such processes take some time, ” he says.
– It bought and sold oil for the next six months. Even if not the cuts will happen from 1. January, will the effect be felt on the body before that time.
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