2016 has been a year with lots of good news for electric vehicle.
Batterikostnadene and car prices have come down, the big automakers have got up your eyes and launches new models, and more countries are introducing legislation.
the Norwegian Elbilforening believe we stand on the threshold of a paradigm shift within passenger cars.
But according to The international energy agency IEA amounts to it not big on oil demand globally. With the plans the world has added so far, global oil demand will grow in the next twenty years, predicts the IEA.
Some say that oil demand will fall because of electric cars. No, says IEA executive director Faith Birol to E24 and VG.
last year, it sold a record number of electric cars, 550.000 pieces. Approximately one of a hundred sold cars was an electric vehicle. If every car sold from tomorrow’s electric vehicles, global oil demand is still increasing. The growth comes from trucks, aircraft and petrochemical industry, ” says Birol.
IEA-the boss on the visit then to norway: The world needs Norwegian oil
– Oljetopp in 2020-century
Statoil ceo Eldar Sætre received a lot of attention recently when he said that global oil demand will probably have to reach a peak during the 2020-ies to resolve klimaproblemet.
– There is a lot of uncertainty, but I believe the peak in oil demand should come in the middle of the 2020′s if we are to resolve this, ” says Sætre to E24.
Statoil has described his togradersscenario in the report “Energy Perspectives 2016″, and says there, that just about all cars sold in 2040 should be an electric or plug-in hybrids, and then will this type of cars constitute more than half the fleet of vehicles.
theGROWING NEED: While passenger cars are expected to need less oil until 2040, will the demand rise sharply in other sectors, according to the Iea’s estimates for the period 2015-2040 in the World Energy Outlook 2016.
But even in such a scenario, is the increased oil demand in the world, ” says Sætre. The reasons are growth in the maritime industry, aviation, petrochemical industry and the number of heavy transport trucks.
the End of 2015: 1.3 million
“New Policies” 2040: 150 million
“450 Scenario” 2040: 750 million
“Well below two degrees”: 1.5 billion
– Electric cars is 0.1 per cent of the world’s global bilflåte. The norwegians are running them, but you must get this in China, Mexico City, Dubai, you need infrastructure and charging, and clean energy to drive this, ” says Sætre.
– We have become more optimistic for this realignment, but it is still demanding, he adds.
today: 1.3 million electric cars – Paris-targets requires 1.5 billion
Wary of oljefall
As it looks now, with the promises made by many countries played in before last year’s Paris agreement, oil demand will not fall on the 2020′s, ” says Birol.
This may change if the political authorities are introducing stricter requirements to reach the klimamålene. The Paris agreement set a goal of limiting global warming to two degrees celsius above the around level, with an ambition to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
– We have one billion cars now, and in 2040 we will have two billion cars, ” says Birol.
– We will use less oil per car, because of higher efficiency, but a third of the growth in global oil demand comes from asian trucks alone. Electric trucks are far away, the same applies to the fly, ” he says.
SOLID GROWTH: To see The international energy agency for the spread of electric cars globally, with more than a 100-fold increase of the number of electric cars until 2040.
Predicts electric vehicle growth
The past year has, nevertheless, the IEA opened my eyes to electric cars.
In last year’s global energirapport said the agency almost nothing about electric cars, but in the years they see a tremendous increase in the sale of electric vehicles, so that fleet will be at 150 million in 2040, and the entire 750 million electric cars if the world follows up on the “togradersmålet”.
– In our hovedscenario we see much higher adoption in the markets for electric cars, but not enough to constitute the majority of the bilsalget compared with fossilbiler. But in a tograders the world, we need to see far more electric cars, ” says Birol.
– They begin to understand that if they don’t bet on an electric car so is it the hook on the door
For that to happen, many problems can be solved, he believes:
- Lack of public support for the purchase of electric cars in many countries
- Lack of infrastructure
- the electric cars will cost still more than fossilbiler
- Many countries produce power with fossil fuels
In China will be two-thirds of the electricity for electric cars from coal. So, the benefits by this is not very impressive, ” says Birol.
What I’m saying is that we should move the us toward togradersmålet, but we have to be realistic. All must look carefully at what the numbers say, ” says Birol.
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