For years its oil wealth become larger and larger. In year shrink it by 40 … – Aftenposten

In the 20 years Oljefondets value has risen quickly. Only in the last ten years, the value is more than femdoblet.

But in 2016 will the fund’s value decline for the first time since 2002, calculated in Norwegian kroner.

the Ministry of finance estimates that the fund will decrease from 7461 billion at the beginning of the year to 7420 billion at the end of the year.

One of the many factors that have contributed to this is that finance minister Siv Jensen (Frp) as the first in the shop has begun to take money out of the fund.

Much lower oil prices allows the flow of fresh oljekroner into the annual state budget is not enough to bring it in balance. In addition, she must take money out of the fund.

Oljepengene of the state budget in 2016 and 2017 comes with other words, from two sources:

• the State’s current oil income from the boreholes in the north Sea, and the sea, farther north.
• Withdrawals from the fund.

In the years before 2016 was the income much greater. Jensen’s spending was then that she every year to be able to put fresh oil income enter in the fund, after having covered the expenses of the state budget.

Take out much more than planned in the year

one year ago, the plan was to take the 3.7 billion out of the fund to cover the expenses in 2016.

Many changes in the budget and the economy has made that the net withdrawals from the fund now looks to be 96 billion.

This ensures that the fund decreases in value from the entrance to the end of 2016.

Take more next year

Next year the organizer Jensen to take 121 billion out of the fund to cover the expenses on the budget.

Still raining, she with that the return of the fund’s placements in the world’s financial markets are so that the fund is rising in value again through 2017.

It will continue each year to 2025, given a number of assumptions.

Siv Jensen will knock a hole in your piggy bank, and are thus historical

Each sixth penny from the oil

Planned use of oljepenger of the state budget is hardly 226 billion next year. This is retrieved from the state’s ongoing revenue from the boreholes next year and by the withdrawal from the fund.

From 2013 to 2017, have the blue the government increased the use of oljepenger from barely 137 billion to barely 226 billion.

We have opportunities in fiscal policy. Then it makes sense to use the possibilities to keep the unemployment rate down, and that is what the Government has done, ” says state secretary Paal Bjørnestad in the Ministry of finance.

He says the Government at the same time have remained within the spending rule is to use the oljepenger.

We have taken out less than the expected real return, ” he says.

Not strong in the faith

the spending rule is based on long-term real return of the fund is 4 percent annually. Real returns consist of dividends and interest, as well as gains of stocks, fixed income and property is worth more – minus the inflation.

Next year expect the Government to use oljepenger which corresponds to 3 per cent of the fund.

But at the same time, the Government is not strong in the faith on the 4 per cent rate of return. When the fremskriver the fund’s growth-add it because the 3 percent real return in 15 years.

as Such, the Government and Bjørnestad just on the fiscal rule.

It becomes lighter for Jensen

To Aftenposten, wrote on Wednesday shows a variety of forecasts that better times are in sight for a oljerammet the Norwegian economy.

Increasingly harder press on the accelerator from Jensen helps get the speed up.

– We see signs that it lightens. But it is too early to hoist the flag, ” she says.

In the crystal ball for 2018

The vast majority of sizes for the Norwegian economy shows good recovery until 2018, according to the ministry’s forecasts:

• The economic growth in Mainland Norway takes smoothly up from 1 per cent in the year to 2.4 per cent about two years.
• turns from a fall in reallønnen of 1 per cent in the year to a real pay increases of 1 per cent in 2018.
• the Unemployment rate is stable or falling slightly, depending on the metering method, the next two years.
• Bedriftsinvesteringene on the mainland increase ever faster.
• Calculated in Norwegian kroner, computes the ministry that oil prices rise about 20 per cent from this year to 2018. Roughly, it means an increase from around 45 dollars a year for 55 dollars on average for 2018.

finance minister Jensen sums up the last few years as follows:

– the Norwegian economy has progressed relatively well through the downturn that started two years ago when the oil price fell.