After a sustained fall through 20 years there was a full stop in august of last year: the Prices of clothing began to rise again in the Norwegian shops.
- There are many who trades on display at clothing stores like never before experienced it in his entire life – that klesprisene can go up, ” says chief economist Lars Haartveit in arbeidsgiverorganisasjonen Work.
20 years in a row
20 years of price decline is likely due to a combination of a variety of conditions. Removal of importkvoter, reduced tariff rates and a shift of production and imports towards low-cost countries in Southeast Asia have helped to push prices lower. Improving the efficiency of the retail sector here at home has probably also had an impact.
In the years before and after the financial crisis was also a strong crown helped to make imported goods less expensive here at home. Winter 2013 was the crown on a record level, according to the import-weighted exchange rate I44, which measures the exchange rate against Norway’s 44 most important trading partners,
Then turned it. The Norwegian currency was after the time exposed to a threat we have never seen before anywhere else. In the course of three years, fell the crown from one of the strongest to one of the weakest levels ever.
- It is quite unique. We have not had such a long lasting and strong weakening of the crown before, ” says Haartveit.
Surprised many
a Weaker dollar means that goods purchased from abroad is more expensive. Norwegian clothing stores were eventually going to have to crank up the prices.
It has been far from alone. Prices on Norwegian goods and services has risen significantly over the last few years. Through the summer in the year came the inflation up to levels that have surprised both the Norwegian investment banks and Norges Bank.
- this is where the uncertainty has been: How much of the valutakurssvekkelsen that would turn out in the imported goods, said the chief economist Kjetil Olsen in Nordea Markets in connection with recent figures for consumer prices was presented in the beginning of september.
the Norwegian consumer prices rose by four per cent in the last 12 months until august of this year.
like Haartveit, shows Olsen that kronekurssvekkelsen this time have had a completely different course of events than by the earlier weakening. Thus sitting is not necessarily those who will be analyzing the developments with good enough basis.
- Movements in the krone exchange rate has been so powerful and lasted so long that there is very little evidence of this type of movements.
This admits Norges Bank also in the last issue of the October monetary policy report, which was laid out for a little over two weeks ago.
“It may look to that passage from the kronesvekkelsen to consumer prices has been stronger than we previously assumed”, said the report.
Late
Although Haartveit believe klesbransjen not was just taken on the bed of the kronesvekkelsen, he believes, nevertheless, it was well late to raise the prices to the customers.
Inflation is a key economic term used to describe a sustained rise in the general price level. Inflation is the same as a fall in the value of money, it will say that you get less goods or services than before for a certain sum of money.
to measure the inflation one looks like monthly or annual changes in the consumer price index (cpi), which the central bureau of Statistics compiles every month. The index is calculated based on the prices on a variety goods and services that is representative for the Norwegian consumption.
Core inflation is the consumer price index (cpi) excluding energy products and tax changes.
Since the particular electricity prices and petrol prices fluctuate much from month to month, the core inflation often seen as a measure that better captures the underlying prisdrivende effects in the economy.
If you look at the actual kjøpekraftsutviklingen, however, the overall consumer price index that gives the correct target.
Norges Bank’s goal is for consumer prices over time to increase by 2.5 percent on an annualized basis.
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- After 20 years of declining prices, so sitting there may be far inside to raise the prices?
- Yes, and so it’s also about competition and struggle for market share, says Ministry-economist.
Many in the industry a long time was careful not to screw up the prices. The result was a long period of time without compensation for increased costs and thus lower margins.
Sportsklærprodusenten Bergans is among the players who have been given notice this. Bergans imports most of its products from Asia and increased turnover last year by five per cent, while the profit before tax ended the a 17.3 million in the minus.
- the Increase we see in consumer prices now, is the effect of the enormous price increases kronesvekkelsen has led to the us who import goods, enlightened, managing director Leif Holst-Liæker in the Bergans in the middle of september.
Go importørenes way
however, There can be prospects of that trend to reverse. Since the new year has namely, the crown passed importørenes way. From a historic bottom in January of this year is the import exchange rate strengthened by around eight per cent.
Although it may take some time, the effects of the preceding years, the powerful kronesvekkelse eventually be flushed out.
“They tidsforsinkete the effects of kronesvekkelsen will now become increasingly weaker. Inflasjonsutviklingen on the slightly longer term will largely be affected by the further development of the exchange rate,” writes Statistics norway in the last issue of prognoserapporten “Economic analysis” which was presented in mid-september.
Thus, next year’s price increases are far more modest than in years.
I think a lot of people get taken out much, so that they, in 2017 will have come up on the retail prices that are more to live with, ” says Haartveit.
at the same time, so that even if the price rise has been close to eight per cent last year, the prices of clothing, however, more than 50 per cent lower now than they were in august 1995.
on Monday put the central bureau of Statistics forward updated figures for the price changes in september. According to estimates that TDN Finans has collected from five economists, it is expected that the consumer price index will show that consumer price inflation was at 3.9 per cent on an annual basis in september, compared to four per cent the month before.
Monday at 08.00 add Statistics Norway until the consumer price index (cpi) for september. Follow with on DN.no.
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