Thursday, November 3, 2016

Bank of England drops more rate cuts in the year – E24

The british central bank chose not to change the key rate on rentemøtet this week.

In addition, the central bank to maintain støttekjøpene of corporate bonds for up to 10 billion pounds and støttekjøpene of british government bonds for 60 billion pounds, so that the total inventory 435 billion pounds.

the Decisions were unanimous, according to a statement from the central bank.

the Decision led to that the pound appreciated by half a percentage point against both the euro and the dollar.

the Pound sterling had already strengthened by about 0.7 per cent against the dollar on Thursday after a court in London decided that the british government had to ask parliament about an approval before they can trigger article 50 to pull the country out of the EU. The verdict implies that the process may take longer in time than the schedule, prime minister Theresa May has added up to.

On rentemøtet in august came the central bank forecast that indicate additional rate cuts in the course of 2016. There was no rate cuts on the week’s novembermøte, and get hardly a cut at the next meeting in December:

– Given the development over the last three months have sentralbankstyret decided that the forecast it gave in augustmøtet about the likelihood of a new interest rate cuts have gone out on the date, write the central bank on Thursday.

the Economy is going better than the central bank feared

chief economist Kjetil Olsen at Nordea Markets, pointed out Thursday morning that last week’s solid GDP figures (economic growth) strengthened their view on the central bank would keep interest rates steady now:

– Now the rate of growth eventually come down as a result of brexit, but the Bank of England want absolutely concrete evidence on it before it is potentially applicable with further easing after they put down the interest rate fairly quickly after the election, wrote Olsen.

In the wake of the british surprising decision in June to leave the EU come the central bank with a package of measures that surprised the markets. They jacked down the interest rate, from 0.5 percentage points, for the first time in seven years, the buy government and corporate bonds for 70 billion pounds sterling, and introduced a new financing scheme for british banks.

What they did in anticipation of lower growth and higher unemployment on the one hand, and an expected inflation target of two per cent on the other side. The majority of the members of the sentralbankstyret believed rentemøtet in august that there would be a need for a rate cuts in the course of the year.

Now write the bank that the development in the short term has been better than expected:

In the three months that have passed, have activity and næringslivsindikatorer brought in from bunnivåene just after the referendum, and the preliminary GDP estimates (for the economic growth, journ.anm.) was better than expected, writes the central bank.

– Household consumption seems to have grown somewhat faster than projected in august and the housing market has been more resilient than expected, writes the bank on.

at the same time, it is pointed out that the mood among investors and the market for commercial properties has been weak in the period.

Think on the higher growth

The british central bank manages against a target of inflation over time on two per cent. After brexit-the decision was believed that it would lead to a weakening in the pound, which would lift inflation.

Now enter the central bank that they estimate that inflation will increase from the current level of around 1 per cent at 2.75 per cent in 2018, before it gradually falls back to 2.5 per cent the year after.

the central Bank has also updated vekstprognosene, now they think the growth will be higher this year and next year than expected, while they at the same time nedjusterer the forecast for the period after 2017.

the central Bank thinks the uk growth will end at 2.2 per cent this year, down 0.2 points more than expected in august. The forecast for growth next year are sharply revised upwards from 0.8 to 1.4 per cent.

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