Exchanges the world over fell somewhat sharply as it became more and more clear that Donald Trump was going to win the election in the united STATES.
They picked up quickly however. Around at 11 on Wednesday morning, most european stock exchanges picked up, and remain around plus/minus half a per cent compared with the previous day. Stock markets in Asia fall any more.
Børsfall evened out
The Russian index of RTS rose after the stock exchange opened on Wednesday morning, probably in the hopes that Trump will improve the relationship between the united STATES and Russia.
the Decrease is quite moderate, and smaller than indicated in advance. After Brexit was the stock markets down around 10 per cent. This is not a case we are going to recall in hindsight, ” says the chief economist of Swedbank, Harald Magnus Andreassen.
Also chief analyst Erik Bruce at Nordea says the reactions are much more muted than expected.
– the Markets think obviously not Trump will go so far as he has said, and that I think is reasonable, but there is still much uncertainty about what he will do going forward, ” says Bruce.
Many will probably think that “this is not so gærent”, he gets good advisers and not done so much stupid as he has said. But it may also be that he gets done a lot, and especially what he has notified in handelspolitikken, with measures against Mexico and China, is alarming, ” says Andreassen.
the Greatest concern for handelspolitikken
Trump has during the campaign warned that he will “tear in pieces” the existing trade agreements and pull the united STATES out of the World trade organization WTO.
He has also warned that he will introduce straffetoll of 35 per cent on imports from Mexico, and 45 percent on imports from China.
Around 1/4 that of the United states trade goes with just these two countries, and such customs will be able to frame us companies producing abroad and sub-contractors for these hard. Many american cars are manufactured, for example, in Mexico, while most of the Iphone are put together in China.
Mexican peso fell to its lowest level against the dollar since 2008 after it became clear that Trump won the election.
Questionable business logic
Andreassen says Trump think like a businessman in handelspolitikken, and that he did not realize the difference between business studies and economics.
– It is impossible, he says.
He shows that the americans will get worse advice if straffetollen on chinese goods is introduced, at the same time that China will respond with tilsvaredne action against the united STATES. It can break a long period of increasingly freer and more trade and more international cooperation, which can affect the growth of the world economy.
Trump completely lack an understanding of global trade and the importance of this, also for the united STATES. He thinks of trade as a zero-sum game, where one loses the other wins. He has a very simple understanding of the economy, and do not see that there can be benefits for both parties to act, ” says Andreassen.
chief analyst Erik Bruce at Nordea agrees that Trumps business logic does not quite hold the dimensions.
He has among other things said that “if the american economy crashes, I will only pay back half the debt. What I’ve done in my business and it has gone well”. But it would have been a crisis for both the u.s. economy and the world economy if he had done something like that. There is a difference between controlling a company and a country, ” says Bruce.
Want to get the Congress out of trouble
He doubts that Trump is going to introduce many of the measures he has announced in the handelspolitikken. This is probably also the conclusion in the markets, thinks Bruce, since the reaction has been less than expected.
– It seems like he shoots from the hip and don’t have any clear plan. When he shall reign, he must discuss with the counselors, and agree with the staff their. His politics are not typical republican – they are traditionally for free trade, ” says Bruce.
Should Trump introduce straffetoll on goods from China and Mexico, it will quickly backfire on american companies, which will give him problems in the Congress, ” says Bruce.
– But it’s always an uncertainty there, and even if the markets now have responded less than one might fear, it will be able to get new unrest if he comes out with statements that suggest that he will go far in that direction, ” he says.
central bank Governor: Worrisome signals
Regardless of the personvalget here, so it has been a great part of the signals from the different quarters in the direction of increased protectionism. It is worrisome if the measures on this front should get impact, ” says governor Øystein Olsen to the newspaper Aftenposten.
the Day thereon after the united STATES-elections mean Olsen which is too early to say anything about the impact of international economics.
But Olsen’s message is crystal clear, even if he doesn’t want to associate it to the United states ‘ new president: Norges Bank fears that the new president will implement measures that restrict global trade.
– that which is important going forward, regardless of the name of the president, is that there is a slightly disturbing light in the direction of increased protectionism globally. If the signals become reality, then it is worrisome for the global economy, ” he says.
– Why is the tendency to protectionism disturbing?
– Because all experience, both theory and empirical, show that increased international integration and trade between countries is important for global growth. I will say that it is especially important for countries such as Norway. Small and open economies are dependent upon trade, open handelskanaler and most free trade in order to get a good economic development, ” says Olsen.
on Wednesday, he opened the Bank’s new knowledge centre. It is primarily aimed towards the youth. In the center they can set interest rates and manage oljepenger on somehow.
Skroter trade agreements
Trump has in the election said that he will tear in pieces what is of the United states ‘ trade agreements. He has called the World trade organization (WTO) a “disaster”.
– In Norges Bank, we have always a contingency on it that might arise by the turmoil in the markets. There has not been a major impact after it was clear that it becomes the Trump. So, the markets remained calm, ” says Olsen
What have you done in Norges Bank in the morning after the election results are known?
– We have as usual had people at work from early in the morning, especially in the department which operates with markedsoperasjoner. Of course, we have followed the good in what has happened in the news and in the markets. I have received a special briefing when I arrived at work this morning.
– What was the main message in the briefing?
the Main view is I have been told is that there are great outlets in the financial, money and foreign exchange markets. There are no major signs of unrest. The markets continue to work.
Siv Jensen: a Lot of exciting
finance minister Siv Jensen says there are items in Trumps economic policy that can be good for the global economy.
She would Wednesday’s reluctant to speculate on what consequences the choice of Trump get for the global and Norwegian economy.
” It will be exciting to see what is the election manifesto that the new administration will work to implement. There is a lot of exciting, both in the skattepolitikken and in the economic policy, as may seem good on the world economy. But today it’s time to congratulate, ” says Jensen to the NTB.
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