SSB: Worse before it gets better – Petro.no

There are undoubtedly light at the end of the tunnel, what comes to the weak economic development, assure Statistics Norway (SSB). But before it brightens, it will be even darker, type NTB.

The growth is namely to take up significantly in 2017 and accelerating that in 2018. It emerged when SSB presented economic trends for Norway and abroad Thursday. Where states agency that growth in the Norwegian economy has been sluggish since last summer, which is primarily due to a clear fall in oil revenue – and that the situation will be even darker.

But researcher Torbjørn Eika look light at the end of the tunnel. Among other things, most people left to get significant growth in purchasing power – that is what you have to spend after inflation has taken its. It will rise even and steadily over the next three years to a peak in 2018 of 1.9 percent.

The high real wage growth is due not particularly spacious wage, according to Statistics Norway, but the prospect of inflation of around 1, 5 percent.

Worst Oil employees

Unemployment will also fall back to 3.8 percent, in line with the growth in the mainland economy picks up. The labor market will in fact eventually help of new growth – and with it increased demand – among trading partners and the weak krona.

But all this happens in a couple of years time, if prognoses. Before that we must prepare ourselves for that situation in the Norwegian economy will weaken further.

– It gets worse before it gets better, summarizes oak NTB.

– Where much worse will depend heavily on what industry you work in. Those who work in the supplier industry and in businesses in the oil industry, will probably experience it significantly tougher than for example those of us working in the public sector, he said.

SSB : Unemployment of 4.3 percent

Among other waiting SSB that we in 2015 and next year is going to see higher unemployment numbers than we have seen for many years. The top comes in 2016, with 4.3 percent, while this year it will rise to 4.2 percent, after remaining at 3.2 per cent last spring.

It is particularly engineers and ICT educated people who will experience an increase in unemployment, and it’s going to happen especially in typical oil counties Rogaland, Hordaland and Vest-Agder.

The strong and negative impact from the slowdown in the petroleum sector is going to have ripple effects on the mainland economy so that growth in this year is estimated at 1.2 per cent poor. The next few years will, however, other factors pull in the opposite direction and provide a GDP growth of around 5 percent.

Cooler housing market

And the fierce house prices have already begun to decline, and the agency awaits a controlled cooling, the inflation remained at the level of inflation – ie around 1.5 percent in 2017 and 2018.

Eika believes there is no basis for expecting something dramatic, uncontrolled fall – nor that the expected growth brake will have repercussions for the banking sector as a result of high private debt ratio.

– It is not my job to be concerned, but to make the best possible forecasts. That said, I’m not worried about the banks, no, says oak.

The already record-low interest rates is likely to be cut by another quarter percentage point at the next monetary policy meeting. But then also clean the bottom reached, predicts SSB.