Wednesday, August 24, 2016

New figures show a larger decline in oil investment – Aftenposten

The investments for 2016 in the extraction of oil and gas and pipeline transportation are estimated at 163.5 billion crowns.

It is 1.5 percent lower than in the last survey of three months ago. The estimate for 2016 is 17.5 percent lower than the corresponding estimate for 2015 given in the third quarter last year.

The fall from 2015 to 2016 who now suggests, is greater than at the previous quarter’s measurement when operators estimate the time projected to fall 14.8 percent.

Statistics let Wednesday presented new figures for oil investment.

These figures are made every quarter and is based the oil company compensation plans for investment.

the downturn continued in 2017

the oil companies’ estimates for 2017 suggest that the decline in investment will continue.

2017 estimate, the entire 18.6 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2016, given in the third quarter of 2015.



But after studying the system used in projections made at different times, think SSB 2017- downturn is projected something Too loud. “There is reason to believe that the sharp relative decline from 2016 to 2017 can be moderated in future measurements,” writes SSB.



Downturn in Western Norway

After oil prices began to fall summer 2014, the slogan of Norwegian economic debate has been “from the unique position to change.”

the fall led to a number of investment plans were loaded. The decline in oil has particularly hit Western counties hard. Unemployment has risen sharply in Rogaland and in Stavanger, housing prices have fallen.

In the rest of the country, the effects have been much more modest. But the influence of fresh oil money into the oil fund is badly affected. This year must finance minister Siv Jensen for the first time to transfer money from the Oil Fund to cover spending in the national budget.

In previous years there has been enough fresh money from the base to both to meet the need of the state budget and to put into the fund.

Who is most dependent on oil money in this country? 94 billion in return for the Fund

Higher unemployment

Unemployment is ticking ever upward in Statistics Norway (SSB) measurements.

Figures which were presented Wednesday show that the unemployment rate in June rose to 4.8 percent. In May, the 4.7 percent but SSB writes that the increase is within the margin of error.

June’s is the highest since oil prices began to fall in summer 2014. Then it was the 3.4 per cent SSB measurements.

135,000 people were without jobs in June this year, up from 131,000 in May. The figures are adjusted for normal seasonal fluctuations during the year

The figure for June is really average SSB surveys for the three months from May to July.

A comparison liger two such periods not overlap, the SSB figures show that unemployment rose by 5,000 people from February to April Mean to Mean from May to July.

Germany with 4.3 percent now have lower unemployment than Norway.

Norway begins must approach the US, according to Statistics Norway had 4.9 percent unemployment in June. But behind the low unemployment rate in the US is the large number of withdrawal from the labor market. Many have given up applying for jobs, and thus decreases the labor force (employed + job seekers).



Lower share of job

Meanwhile, the proportion of the population aged 15-74 that is in job. SSB writes that share has fallen by 1 percentage point since year 2014/2015. This decrease corresponds to around 27,000 jobs.

number in the job, however, has remained virtually unchanged since the turn of the year 2014/15.

But the composition of those jobs have changed itself. The seasonally adjusted number of employment under age 25 decreased during this period. The number of over 25 years and over has increased slightly, SSB writes.



Fewer unemployed with Nav

Both Nav and SSB measure unemployment. In Nav numbers is the rise in unemployment since the average February- April to average from May to June this year only 1,000 people.

Nav count everyone who signs up. SSB’s figures are made on the basis of a survey among people. Those seeking work but who have not registered with Nav, will be in addition to SSB numbers.

SSB writes that their numbers provide “the most comprehensive picture of the overall unemployment rate, especially because also get with the people seeking work without registering at NAV. “

Tallen also shows that there is unemployment among young people has increased most in SSB numbers. These are people who often are not entitled to unemployment benefits, and who therefore do not register with Nav.

You can read more about the great distortions between the two measurement e.

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