Industry
Statistics norway’s business tendency survey shows the decline in production in the Norwegian industry. The outlook for the Norwegian industry is not very good, ” says chief analyst Erik Bruce at Nordea.
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Norwegian respondents reported a decline in production in 4. quarter of 2016, still driven by the suppliers to the oil and gas industry.
It shows konjunkturbarometeret for the industry for the fourth quarter of 2016, according to Statistics norway (SSB).
Better than expected
the Composite economic indicator for the industry was in 4. quarter of 2016 on -0,4, up from -5,1, in the preceding quarter. This is below the historic average of 3.0.
The advance was expected, an index of -1, according to a compilation of various økonomers expectations conducted by Bloomberg.
An index of zero suggests growth in output in the next quarter, while index values below zero imply a decline in output. The indicator is calculated on the basis of what businesses answering about expected production, total stocks of orders and ferdigvarelager.
- It is a positive change, but still a negative development. The largest negative drawbar is past us and is already communicated through the oljeinvesteringsplanene that are reported, ” says senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov, Handelsbanken to DN about konjunkturbarometeret.
senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov, Handelsbanken. Photo: Thomas T. Kleiven
He points to the fact that Norway has two years behind the us with 15 per cent fall in petroleum investment, while in the year are reported in investments corresponding to a fall of around ten per cent.
More industries are affected
Indicator picked up slightly, but is still on the weak side, ” says chief analyst Erik Bruce at Nordea about the numbers.
the Decline in the third quarter, comes specifically from the manufacturers of capital goods, which experienced a further decline in production. The low activity among suppliers to the oil and gas sector contributes still to this development, and affects particularly the following industries, according to STATISTICS norway.
chief analyst Erik Bruce at Nordea Markets. Photo: Per Ståle Bugjerde
- machine industry
- the Construction of ships and oil platforms
- Repair and installation
the Outlook for the Norwegian industry is not very good, for we know petroleum investment is going to fall also this year, ” says Bruce.
He points out that kronesvekkelsen helps and that it is with respect to new orders.
- It is completely as expected. We expect in total that it becomes relatively weak year for Norwegian industry, but hopefully we are soon on the bottom and probably will be 2018 something brighter.
Positive expectations
The general bedømmelsene of the prospects for 1. quarter of 2017 is overall positive, according to STATISTICS norway.
industrial leaders sign yet that the investments nedjusteres something, and it is expected a further fall in employment. New orders from both the domestic and the export markets is expected to increase, and the overall decline in total stocks is assumed also to go up. The producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods is optimistic in his assessment of the coming quarter, while manufacturers of capital goods is negative, according to STATISTICS.
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