Friday was Donald Trump officially inaugurated as the United states ‘ 45. president.
prior to his current Stig Myrseth in Dovre Forvaltning initiates its weekly comment that Trump has notified the drastic changes, but no one knows what he really stands for.
Ahead we’ll see who the real Trump is, and it will determine the direction of the stock market, he writes.
Myrseth think anyway we can forget about earnings season.
It is noise compared with the inauguration of the Trump. Trump will decide whether børsåret is topped with champagne and cigar or vodka and nervetabletter, continues Dovre director.
He pulls forward five Trump-triggers.
1) Corporate
The main Trump-triggeren of all. Trump has promised to lower the vat rate to 15 per cent, Myrseth mean seems little realistic, since it will ruinere the treasury.
- Even a cut to the OECD-level, around 25 per cent, however, will increase earnings in the listed companies with approximately ten per cent. If so, is the date set for the new kursrekorder on Wall Street. Conversely, the lack of or minimal tax cuts quickly lead to a reversal of the winter Trump-rally, he writes.
2) trade policy
What aft Trump to make here? Introduced tollmurer or other trade restrictions, it will according to Dovre-the director create winners and losers in business.
He believes that this area poses a particular threat to Norway.
- the united STATES Will impose customs duties on imported oil to encourage domestic production? In this case, it is easy to imagine that verdensmarkedsprisen of crude oil will plunge, as the united STATES still is the earth’s second largest importer, type Myrseth.
the Danger with such a grip does he mean not to be underestimated.
- first, there is bipartisan consensus in the united STATES to make the country energiuavhengig. Secondly, has OPEC a bad case of the complaints the united STATES for the competition authorities. It is doubtful whether the cartel can get united STATES convicted of violation of “free trade”, explains the director.
The most important argument against such customs duties are, according to Myrseth voters.
Get the thing to engage the americans just as much as the right to bear arms, bensinprisen and abortspørsmålet. Furthermore, it is critical to follow the relationship with China closely. President Xi will hardly turn the other cheek about the Trump switch with the straffetoll. One of the ways China could respond is to devalue the currency. Then there will be panic on Wall Street, he continues.
3) fiscal policy
Trump has promised to invest heavily on infrastructure. Carried out this, it will be good news for the new for raw material and entreprenørsektoren, but also the economy in general, believes that the Dovre-director.
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4) foreign Policy
According to Myrseth will Trump after all solemerker raise the sanctions against Russia.
- In this case, the stage was set for a supersykel in the farming industry. Moreover, it seems not Trump excited for either the EU or NATO. Maintained the NATO-sceptical line, Europe gearing up and take responsibility for their own security. It will give the party in the defence industry, he writes.
5) Regulation
Trump has pledged to eliminate the suffocating reguleringspresset in the banking sector. Does he do it, will bankaksjer experience the tailwind. Furthermore, he has spoken out critically about environmental protection and climate change. While this constitutes an opportunity for fossilindustrien, Trump is a threat to the low-carbon economy, believes Myrseth.
Right now the betting in Wall Street on that the positive aspects Trump will overshadow the negative. We have to hope the market has the right and that this goes well, end the Dovre-director.
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