Macroeconomics
DNB Markets expect that the crown strengthened against a number of key currencies over the next year.
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DNB Markets believe the crown should continue strengthening in the years to come. According to meglerhusets new forecasts will crown strengthened to around 8,70 money for a euro one year from now compared with today’s level of around 9,05 million.
– the Crown should be drawn stronger by higher oil prices, a high level of interest rates and the fact that the crown is abnormally weak, type valutastrateg Magne Østnor in prognoserapporten “Economic prospects”, which was put forward on Wednesday.
oil lift
The Norwegian krone has the last years had a strong tendency to fluctuate in line with oil prices. Østnor is, however, a little surprised that oljeprisutviklingen not gave greater impact on the krone through last year.
It was particularly at the beginning of the year, after oil prices began to rise from his bunnpunkt, that oil prices contributed a lot to kronestyrkelsen. Further contributed Opecs notice of kuttavtale to a stronger dollar in the end of september.
– the Year as a whole, however, the oil prices were somewhat less than what we had set for ourselves, type valutastrategen.
the Current year pending the investment firm that oil prices will rise further from the current level of around 55 dollars a barrel. In the year’s last quarter will the price of / in the average, be 70 dollars per barrel, according to estimates.
– It should contribute to a stronger krone, says Østnor.
Believe Norges Bank will affect less
Østnor waiting at the same time that the Norges Bank will be less relevant for kroneutviklingen forward. The central bank’s key policy rate is at a record low of 0.5 per cent. Where will it be in the next four years, according to the DNB-estimates.
DNB-strategist points out even that the central bank awaits a completely different course for the crown the next year. While the SAB believes that the handelsveide the crown will be strengthened with a three per cent, believe the Norges Bank that it will weaken by around one percent.
– the Difference occurs in the degree of different estimates on the price of oil. Where Norges Bank assumes an oil price close to 57 dollars a barrel towards the end of next year, we expect an oil price that is almost 20 percent higher.
We estimate, moreover, is not as large a fall in the interest rate differential against trading partners that Norges Bank do, write Østnor.
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