Energy
the Contours of a stable oil prices begin at last to appear. But experts now points at the one thing that can push it back.
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the price of oil has risen about 15 percent since oljekartellet Opec warned produksjonskutt in september of last year.
Investors have at times had his doubts about whether the plan would actually be realized, after the decision was further discussed during the kartellets annual meeting in Vienna in november.
But now begins the cut to give the effect, and seems to form a “floor” of 50 dollars a barrel for nordsjøolje, according to råvaresjef Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB.
As a new markedskonsensus takes the form, is the fog around the balance in the oil market beginning to ease and oil prices seem to be stabilized, he writes in an update Friday.
Since June 2014, the price for a barrel nordsjøolje fluctuated between 115 dollars at the highest and 27 dollars at the lowest.
at the time Of writing traded nordsjøolje for 54,70 dollars a barrel, almost one percent higher than the previous trading day. American general reference oil priced to 52,76 dollars.
early days
Senior oljeanalytiker Thina Saltvedt of Nordea Markets believes that an incipient stabilisation of the oil prices already have been going on for a while.
After the Opec meeting at the end of november jumped price of oil 20 per cent. But it was on the expectations, ” she says.
Saltvedt think it is too early to conclude that it is the effect of the Opec cut which seems to work stabilizing the prices.
It takes time to get implemented, so it will not know until it has been at least a month. The indications suggest, however, that a part of the major nations have begun to cut, but if it is cut in the agreed size and how long they are going to do it, remains to be seen, ” says Saltvedt.
Two powers
One thing, however, may be in the process of adding negative pressure on the price of oil:
The american skiferoljen. The question is how quickly this comes back in the market.
Saltvedt points out that american oil production has become far more efficient the last few years. In addition, skiferprodusentene surprised the market several times, both with respect to production level and the ability to withstand oljepriskollaps.
Schieldrop at SEB believe the prices for the u.s. general reference oil is about to approach 60 per barrel, which is known to be the “limit” of what makes production profitable for us skiferprodusenter.
But:
There is really no one who know where the “break even” is for skiferprodusentene. We have moved the target down to 55 dollars a barrel, ” says Saltvedt.
Thus, there are now two market forces that pull in each their direction:
the OPEC cut, which on the one hand could lift the price, and skiferoljeproduksjonen that can be calming.
Saltvedt expect surprises from the latter.
- They can shock us again with the to come much faster back. It is only to follow the well on how they do it going forward, ” she says.
increase
on Thursday notified The international energy agency (IEA) that oil demand in 2017 will be 140.000 barrels higher per day than first anticipated.
In the monthly report it is stated also that the agency believes in less growth than previously anticipated as a result of higher oil prices. IEA nedjusterte also estimated the surplus of oil in the market to 0.5 million barrels per day.
Schieldrop think there is more to go on.
” We believe that this estimate is still too high and believe it will be further revised down by about 0.2 million barrels in the course of the next few months, writes råvaresjefen.
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